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special edition 2019
NET NEXT
Living change
in challenging times
www.flowsmag.com
In Italian, English and German
Summary
The German and Italian AEC industry by 2025 4
Plausible Scenarios and Strategic Implications
by KRISTIAN KERSTING
Art, Science and Experience 18
The Engineer in the age of the Digital Disruption
by GIOVANNI BATTISTA FURLAN
Getting stronger in uncertain times! 24
A Manifesto for engineers and scientists
by JEFFREY SEECK AND STEFANO SUSANI
Metamorphosis of a butterfly 30
The Digital Transformations process in NET Engineering International
by GESINE BÖHRINGER, SILVIA FURLAN AND GRIT MESTENHAUSER
1Giovanni Battista Furlan
President of NET Engineering International
The ongoing digital revolution drives us to look ahead, making new technological
tools available to aid us in indicating new aims, and face and deal with great
challenges. There is certainly an enormous potential of which we in particular, as
engineers and designers of infrastructures, are called on to make good use. First of
all, it’s a question of responsibility with regard to our local area and those who live
there today but, above all, future generations.
How should this responsibility be managed? First of all, by sharing it. Engineers
are no longer alone with their creative and productive work. Today, the design and
construction of a work goes beyond the abilities and talent of the individual, who
is required not only to interact with the customer but also with a wide work group
with new specialists, often linked to the advent of the most recent technological
design tools, and all the stakeholders involved in the project. This method not only doesn’t restrict the qualities of
the engineers but, on the contrary, it enhances them, raising the degree of their commitment to levels never seen
before and obliging them to talk to a variegated audience for sharing and approval.
Therefore, the management of responsibility that the digital revolution puts before our eyes goes beyond the
traditional technical skills which, today, are no longer enough. They have to be flanked by a cultural sensitivity that
enables the project and operational process it generates to be carried forward through a wider, more complete
vision which the new technologies allow us to easily achieve. Even before that, we shouldn’t forget a good dose of
humility because if we aren’t humble, we’re not able to listen without prejudice.
Listening ability, humility and cultural sensitivity are all values to ‘implant’ on essential solid technical-scientific
bases which the engineer should cultivate today to be able to try out the potential that the new technologies make
available with courage and freedom but also responsibility and conscience, thus dominating them rather than
running the risk of being dominated!
ITA
La rivoluzione digitale in corso ci spinge a guardare avanti, mettendoci a livelli mai sperimentati prima e obbligandolo al dialogo con una platea
a disposizione nuovi strumenti tecnologici grazie ai quali individuare multiforme, da cui ottenere condivisione e consenso.
obiettivi inediti, affrontare e risolvere grandi sfide: si tratta certamente La gestione delle responsabilità che la rivoluzione digitale pone davanti
di un potenziale enorme, del quale siamo chiamati – in particolare, ai nostri occhi, dunque, va oltre le tradizionali competenze tecni-
come ingegneri e progettisti di opere infrastrutturali - a fare buono che, che oggi, da sole, non bastano più; è necessario che esse siano
uso. È innanzitutto una questione di responsabilità nei confronti del affiancate ad una sensibilità culturale che permetta di portare avanti il
nostro territorio e di coloro che lo abitano oggi, ma soprattutto delle progetto e il processo operativo che lo genera attraverso uno sguardo
generazioni future. più esteso e completo, che le nuove tecnologie ci permettono facil-
Come gestire questa responsabilità? Innanzitutto, condividendola: l’in- mente di raggiungere. E ancor prima: non dimentichiamoci di mettere
gegnere non è più solo davanti al proprio lavoro ideativo e produttivo. in campo una buona dose di umiltà, perché se non si è umili, non si è in
La progettazione e realizzazione di un’opera oggi va oltre le capacità grado di ascoltare senza pregiudizi.
e il talento del singolo, il quale è chiamato a interagire non solo con il Capacità di ascolto, umiltà, sensibilità culturale: sono questi i valori, da
committente, ma anche con un ampio team di lavoro, con nuove figure “impiantare” su indispensabili solide basi tecnico-scientifiche, che un
specialistiche – spesso legate proprio all’avvento dei più recenti stru- ingegnere oggi dovrebbe coltivare per poter sperimentare con ardi-
menti tecnologici di progettazione - e con tutti gli stakeholder coinvolti mento e libertà, ma anche con responsabilità e coscienza, le potenzia-
dal progetto. Questo metodo non solo non comprime le qualità dell’in- lità che le nuove tecnologie mettono a nostra disposizione, evitando
gegnere ma, al contrario, le esalta, alzando l’asticella del suo impegno così il rischio di diventarne succube, anzi dominandole!
DEU
Die derzeitige digitale Revolution zwingt uns, nach vorn zu blicken, Anforderungen seines Engagements auf eine noch nie dagewesene
indem wir uns mit neuen technologischen Hilfsmitteln ausstatten, Höhe gehoben wird und er zum Dialog mit einem vielfältigen Publikum
dank derer wir vollkommen neue Ziele erkennen sowie große gezwungen ist, von dem er Zustimmung und Beipflichtung erhält.
Herausforderungen in Angriff nehmen und lösen können: Es handelt Die Handhabung der Verantwortung, die uns die digitale Revolution
sich sicherlich um ein enormes Potenzial und wir – insbesondere als vorsetzt, geht daher über die herkömmlichen technischen
Ingenieure und Entwerfer infrastruktureller Bauwerke – sind dazu Kompetenzen hinaus, die heute allein nicht mehr genügen; sie müssen
berufen, es auf vernünftige Weise zu nutzen. Es ist vor allem eine Frage von einer kulturellen Sensibilität begleitet werden, die es ermöglicht,
der Verantwortung gegenüber unserem Gebiet und derer, die heute das Projekt und den operativen Prozess, über einen erweiterten Blick
dort wohnen, vor allem aber gegenüber den zukünftigen Generationen. voranzutreiben, den wir dank der neuen Technologien auf einfache
Wie kann man diese Verantwortung handhaben? Vor allem durch Weise erzielen können. Allem voran dürfen wir nicht vergessen, eine
Teilen: Der Ingenieur steht nicht mehr allein vor seiner gestalterischen ordentliche Portion Bescheidenheit mitzubringen. Wenn man nicht
und produktiven Arbeit. Die Planung und Verwirklichung eines bescheiden ist, ist man nicht in der Lage, vorurteilslos zuzuhören.
Bauwerks gehen heute über die Fähigkeit und das Talent des Die Fähigkeit des Zuhörens, Bescheidenheit, kulturelle Sensibilität:
einzelnen hinaus. Er ist dazu berufen, nicht nur mit dem Auftraggeber Das sind die Werte, die auf unerlässlichen soliden technisch-
zu interagieren, sondern auch mit einem umfangreichen Arbeitsteam, wissenschaftlichen Grundlagen „eingepflanzt” werden müssen, die
mit neuen Fachleuten – deren Rolle oft mit der Einführung der ein Ingenieur heutzutage pflegen sollte. Nur auf diese Weise kann er
jüngsten technologischen Planungsinstrumente verbunden ist – das Potenzial, das uns die neuen Technologien zur Verfügung stellen,
und mit allen Stakeholdern, die in das Projekt involviert sind. Diese unerschrocken und frei, aber auch verantwortungsvoll und bewusst
Methode garantiert nicht nur, dass die Qualitäten des Ingenieurs erforschen, um die Gefahr der Unterlegenheit zu vermeiden und sich
nicht herabgesetzt werden, sie unterstreicht sie vielmehr, indem die vielmehr diese Technologien untertan zu machen!Torsten Wulf
Academic Director
Center for Strategy and Scenario Planning
HHL Leipzig Graduate School of Management
What will my industry look like in five or ten years’ time? Which products and services
will customers demand in the future? How can my company stay successful in a
changing market? These questions are not easy to answer in the increasingly volatile,
uncertain, complex and ambiguous environments that many companies face today.
In order to help find answers to these questions, we founded the Center for Strategy
and Scenario Planning at HHL Leipzig Graduate School of Management in 2009. This
research centre focusses on integrating the Scenario Method into strategic planning
processes of companies from diverse industries. We developed the Scenario-based
Strategic Planning Process which has been applied by various companies for this purpose.
I am very happy that NET Engineering International has decided to use this approach to develop scenarios for the AEC
markets in Germany and Italy and that we have been able to cooperate closely over the past months. As part of this
cooperation, Kristian Kersting has done a great job in outlining scenarios for AEC companies that highlight the great
potential for productivity increases in the industry. His scenarios show the tremendous opportunities that lie ahead for
those companies that embrace the industry’s megatrends, particularly the potential of digital technologies.
I hope that you enjoy reading this booklet on ‘Digital Transformation’.
ITA
Come sarà il mio settore industriale nei prossimi cinque o dieci organizzazioni d’impresa.
anni? Quali prodotti e servizi verranno richiesti dai clienti in Sono molto felice che NET Engineering International abbia
futuro? In che modo la mia azienda può mantenere il proprio deciso di utilizzare questo approccio per elaborare gli scenari
successo in un mercato in continuo cambiamento? Non è del mercato del settore AEC in Germania e Italia e che abbiamo
semplice trovare una risposta a queste domande all’interno del avuto l’opportunità di collaborare durante i mesi scorsi. All’inter-
contesto sempre più volatile, incerto, complesso e ambiguo in no di questa collaborazione, Kristian Kersting ha fatto un ottimo
cui le organizzazioni operano oggi. lavoro nel delineare gli scenari per le aziende del settore AEC,
Con lo scopo di offrire un supporto nella ricerca di risposte a evidenziando il grande potenziale in termini di aumento della
queste domande, abbiamo fondato nel 2009 il Center for Stra- produttività per questa industry. Gli scenari identificati mostrano
tegy and Scenario Planning presso la HHL Graduate School of le eccezionali opportunità per quelle organizzazioni d’impresa
Management di Lipsia. Obiettivo del Centro di ricerca è integrare in grado di abbracciare i megatrend del settore, in particolare il
lo "Scenario Method" all’interno dei processi di pianificazione potenziale delle tecnologie digitali.
della strategia di organizzazioni provenienti da diversi settori Spero vi piacerà leggere questo booklet sulla „Digital Transfor-
industriali. A questo scopo, abbiamo sviluppato lo "Scenario-ba- mation“.
sed Strategic Planning Process" che è stato applicato da diverse
DEU
Wie wird mein Industriesektor in den nächsten fünf oder zehn Es freut mich sehr, dass die NET Engineering International
Jahren aussehen? Welche Produkte und Dienstleistungen werden Group beschlossen hat, diesen Ansatz zur Entwicklung der
die Kunden in Zukunft verlangen? Wie kann mein Unternehmen Marktszenarios im AEC-Sektor in Deutschland und Italien
auf einem wechselhaften Markt erfolgreich bleiben? Es ist nicht zu entwickeln und dass wir die Möglichkeit hatten, während
einfach, Antworten auf diese Fragen in einem immer flüchtigeren, der vergangenen Monate zusammenzuarbeiten. Im Rahmen
unsichereren, komplexeren und unklareren Umfeld zu finden, das dieser Zusammenarbeit hat Kristian Kesting optimale Arbeit
Unternehmen heute in Angriff nehmen müssen. bei der Skizzierung des Szenarios für die Firmen des AEC-
Mit dem Zweck, bei der Suche nach Antworten Unterstützung Sektors geleistet. Er hat dabei das große Potenzial in Sachen
zu bieten, haben wir im Jahre 2009 das Center for Strategy Produktivitätssteigerung für diese Industrie hervorgehoben.
and Scenario Planning an der HHL Leipzig Graduate School of Die identifizierten Szenarios zeigen die außerordentlichen
Management gegründet. Das Ziel dieses Forschungszentrums Möglichkeiten für jene Unternehmen auf, die in der Lage sind, die
besteht in der Integration der Scenario Method in die strategischen Megatrends des Sektors, insbesondere das Potenzial der digitalen
Planungsprozesse von Unternehmen aus unterschiedlichen Technologien aufzugreifen.
Industriesektoren. Mit diesem Vorsatz haben wir den szenario- Ich wünsche Ihnen viel Vergnügen beim Lesen dieses Booklets zur
basierten strategischen Planungsprozess entwickelt, der für „Digitalen Transformation“.
unterschiedliche Unternehmensorganisationen angewendet
wurde.The German and Italian
AEC industry by 2025
Plausible Scenarios and Strategic Implications
This article is a partial summary of a Master Thesis written by the author that was handed in by Spring 2019.
The thesis was awarded with the highest possible grad and was written in collaboration with NET Engineering
International in close contact with Stefano Susani and Jeffrey Seeck with additional support by Giovanni
Acciaro.
4by KRISTIAN KERSTING
“Recent Master in Management (MSc) graduate from HHL Leipzig Graduate School of Management with
experience as a business developer and project manager in various industries”
The German and Italian architecture, engineering, the incorporation of a broad set of perspectives to
and construction (AEC) industry is characterised by counteract potential biases and ensure plausibility
stagnant productivity and a low degree of digitisation. of scenarios. Aggregating the results from the
However, recent technological advancements and stakeholder feedback yielded 40 factors spanning
market developments question this status-quo. political, economic, social, technological, ecological,
Assessing how this industry will be affected is and legal developments for both Germany and Italy.
therefore not only of interest but a question of survival Stakeholders rated factors regarding strength of
for many stakeholders. impact and degree of uncertainty on a scale of 1 to 10.
Determining how the future will look like is not without I. The German architecture, engineering, and
its difficulties. This is because the AEC industry (and construction industry by 2025
for that matter most, if not all, industries) and its
Figure 1 visualises the results of the stakeholder
market dynamics are characterised by high degrees
feedback for the German AEC industry. The seven
of complexity, ambiguity, and volatility. Combined,
factors positioned in the top right corner were
these three dimensions constitute true uncertainty
characterised by a high degree of uncertainty and
which can be defined as an individual’s inability
strong impact on the industry. Therefore, they can be
to predict the future accurately. Disregarding or
considered critical uncertainties for the German AEC
underestimating uncertainty poses substantial threats
industry. Namely they were:
to companies’ success by leaving them unprotected
against environmental change and ignorant of 1. Remuneration development (economic)
potential opportunities. Therefore, uncertainty must 2. Project acceptance (social)
be incorporated in strategic planning which can be 3. Degree and complexity of regulation (legal)
facilitated through different ways, one being scenario- 4. Degree of Digitisation (technological)
based strategic planning. 5. Economic stability (economic)
6. Development of key technologies (technological)
This approach proved valuable in developing four
7. Political stability and elections (political)
plausible scenarios for both the German and Italian AEC
industry by 2025. Subsequently, suitable strategies By clustering these critical uncertainties by thematic
for dealing with future developments were derived. similarity two dimensions emerged: (1) feasibility
To do so, the qualitative and quantitative assessment of projects which is determined by socio-politico-
of more than 160 internal and external stakeholders, economic factors and (2) speed of industry digitisation
including customers, competitors, regulatory bodies, which is driven by technological developments and their
financial institutions was considered. This allowed for adoption. Using these two dimensions as axes for the
critical uncert
strong personal Economic stability
impact Scope of regulation
Project acceptance
Remuneration
development
aint
ies
Degree
of digitization
Key technology
development
Political stability
trends & elections
secondary
elements
weak uncertainty
low high
P Ec S T En L
Figure 1: Impact/uncertainty grid for the German AEC industry in 2025
5scenario grid and extrapolating the development of each
axis towards its most extreme positive and negative
Progressive manifestation, four distinct scenarios materialised, as
speed of industry digitization
shown in Figure 2. Naming these scenarios gives a first
indication of how the German AEC industry could look like
in 2025. Next, the story behind the name needed to
DIGITIZED DIGITIZED become fleshed out by using the influence diagram
BUST BOOM
that illustrates the cause-effect relationships of the
most relevant trends, critical uncertainties, and the
Low High two key uncertainties. The selection and relationship
feasibility feasibility
of projects of projects of factors was discussed during a workshop with
AFTER Stefano Susani, Jeffrey Seeck, and Giovanni Acciaro
BOOM THE TRAP OF
COMES COMPLACENCY
from NET to ensure plausibility and consistency of
BUST all scenarios. In total 25 factors were chosen, whose
complex relationships are visualised by Figure 3.
Slow This constituted the basis for the description of the
speed of industry digitization
four individual scenarios. To satisfy the complexity of
all involved factors, the original work of this summary
Figure 2:
featured a more than two-page detailed description
Scenario matrix of the German per scenario. For brevity’s sake, this article provides a
AEC industry in 2025 fact sheet with the most important indicators and a
short description instead.
time
environmental political stability
awareness and elections
scope of
regulation
subsidies and
supporting measures
availability of economic interest rate policy startup culture
skilled labor stability and interest rates
civic involvement key technology
development
availability of remuneration implementation of expansion of
construction land development energy transition broadband
digitalized business mobility trends
consequences of models
climate changes
project
acceptance
degree of innovation and
scarcity of materials digitization distruption speed
development of
construction cost
planning and
permission speed
consolidation trends expansion of
infrastructure
feasibility of projects speed of industry digitization
Figure 3: Influence diagram of the German AEC industry
6cost of borrowing for corporations GOP grown construction cost
10% 5% 200
9% 180
8% 4% 160
7% 140
6% 3% 120
5% 100
4% 2% 80
3% 60
2% 1% 40
1% 20
0% 0% 0
‘18 ‘19 ‘20 ‘21 ‘22 ‘23 ‘24 ‘25 ‘18 ‘19 ‘20 ‘21 ‘22 ‘23 ‘24 ‘25 ‘18 ‘19 ‘20 ‘21 ‘22 ‘23 ‘24 ‘25
construction demand industry demand Very conducive socio-politico-economic
condictions cause rising construction demand and
200 200
facilitate project realization.
180 180
160 160
Beneficial regulation and key technology
developments accelerate industry digitization that
140 140
causes industry productivity to surge. Mobility
120 120 integrated and energy transition ensues.
100 100
Rising demand is met by increasing productivity,
80 80 leading to construction cost on par with inflation
60 60 levels.
40 40 Despite the abolishment of the HOAI, architecture
20 20 and engineering firms retain their independence
0 0 and little consolidation can be observed. This is
‘18 ‘19 ‘20 ‘21 ‘22 ‘23 ‘24 ‘25 ‘18 ‘19 ‘20 ‘21 ‘22 ‘23 ‘24 ‘25 facilitated by low industry cost-pressure.
Figure 4: Fact sheet Germany – Scenario A – Digitised boom
cost of borrowing for corporations GOP grown construction cost
10% 5% 200
9% 180
8% 4% 160
7% 140
6% 3% 120
5% 100
4% 2% 80
3% 60
2% 1% 40
1% 20
0% 0% 0
‘18 ‘19 ‘20 ‘21 ‘22 ‘23 ‘24 ‘25 ‘18 ‘19 ‘20 ‘21 ‘22 ‘23 ‘24 ‘25 ‘18 ‘19 ‘20 ‘21 ‘22 ‘23 ‘24 ‘25
construction demand industry demand The AEC industry is booming due to positive
200
socio-politico-economic conditions. Demand
200
surges.
180 180
160 160
Productivity rises only slightly over 2019 levels due to
flat industry digitization and unfavorable regulation.
140 140
120 120 Mobility and energy landscape stagnate somewhat.
100 100 Following the abolishment of the HOAI and
80 80 increasing cost pressure, some consolidation
ensues. Overall, the industry remains highly
60 60
fragmented.
40 40
The stable socio-politico-economic situation
20 20
constitutes the trap of complacency as German AEC
0 0 players are prone to disregard the possibility of a
‘18 ‘19 ‘20 ‘21 ‘22 ‘23 ‘24 ‘25 ‘18 ‘19 ‘20 ‘21 ‘22 ‘23 ‘24 ‘25 less-prosperous future.
Figure 5: Fact sheet Germany – Scenario B – The trap of complacency
Scenario A – Digitised boom Scenario B – The trap of complacency
Digitised boom features positive socio-politico- Ever, due to lack of technological adoption, the industry
economic conditions that drive further growth of is faced with continuous stagnant productivity that
the already booming AEC industry in Germany. ultimately increased construction cost. Due to the
Furthermore, it offers pronounced opportunities to generally good demand situation, stakeholders are
improve previously stagnant productivity through content with the status quo and therefore neglect to
progressive digitisation speed. In this scenario industry commit to long-term investments in technology and
stakeholders have recognised the need for long-term its adoption. However, this complacency constitutes a
investment to secure prolonged growth and stability. trap, as it does not prepare for less prosperous times.
7cost of borrowing for corporations GOP grown construction cost
10% 2,5% 200
9% 2,0% 180
8% 1,5% 160
7% 1,0% 140
6% 0,5% 120
5% 0,0% 100
4% -0,5% 80
3% -1,0% 60
2% -1,5% 40
1% -2,0% 20
0% -2,5% 0
‘18 ‘19 ‘20 ‘21 ‘22 ‘23 ‘24 ‘25 ‘18 ‘19 ‘20 ‘21 ‘22 ‘23 ‘24 ‘25 ‘18 ‘19 ‘20 ‘21 ‘22 ‘23 ‘24 ‘25
construction demand industry demand Construction demand and realization potential
decreased due to political instability, regulatory
200 200
disarray, and negative GDP growth.
180 180
160 160
Productivity remains flat following technological
stagnation and lacking incentives. Mobility and
140 140
energy landscape are at a standstill.
120 120
Rising construction cost are offset by mass
100 100
lay-offs, unpaid overtime and sub-contracting
80 80 projects to low cost countries. The inevitable
60 60 cannot be prevent; consolidation trends become
40 40 rampant.
20 20 Overall, the economy and AEC industry are in a
0 0 deep recession which, due to structural issues, is
‘18 ‘19 ‘20 ‘21 ‘22 ‘23 ‘24 ‘25 ‘18 ‘19 ‘20 ‘21 ‘22 ‘23 ‘24 ‘25 unlikely to improve in the near future.
Figure 6: Fact sheet Germany – Scenario C – After boom comes bust
cost of borrowing for corporations GOP grown construction cost
10% 2,5% 200
9% 2,0% 180
8% 1,5% 160
7% 1,0% 140
6% 0,5% 120
5% 0,0% 100
4% -0,5% 80
3% -1,0% 60
2% -1,5% 40
1% -2,0% 20
0% -2,5% 0
‘18 ‘19 ‘20 ‘21 ‘22 ‘23 ‘24 ‘25 ‘18 ‘19 ‘20 ‘21 ‘22 ‘23 ‘24 ‘25 ‘18 ‘19 ‘20 ‘21 ‘22 ‘23 ‘24 ‘25
construction demand industry demand Political instability and regulatory chaos constitute
200 200
the basis for negative economic growth. Construction
demand decreases and its realization is limited.
180 180
160 160 Decreasing demand, price wars and financial turmoil
lead to extensive industry consolidation.
140 140
120 120 An environmental - and technology - enthusiast
government supports digitization which causes a
100 100
swift energy transition and the adoption of new
80 80 mobility trends. Concurrently, industry productivity is
60 60 improved.
40 40 The industry is in a deep recession, future economic
20 20 improvements can be leveraged because of the
0 0 underlying technological and environmental
‘18 ‘19 ‘20 ‘21 ‘22 ‘23 ‘24 ‘25 ‘18 ‘19 ‘20 ‘21 ‘22 ‘23 ‘24 ‘25 advancements.
Figure 7: Fact sheet Germany – Scenario D – Digitised bust
Scenario C – After boom comes bust Scenario D – Digitised bust
How these times could look like is shown in ‘After In ‘Digitised bust’ the economy has taken a downturn
boom comes bust’ where the positive socio-politico- and resulted in decreased construction demand.
economic situation of the late 2010s have given However, industry stakeholders had the foresight
way to a recessive period, resulting in layoffs and to know that no boom could last forever and
consolidation trends. Due to increased financial therefore committed to the necessary investments
pressure, long overdue investments are not feasible in technology. Consequently, their situation is less
anymore, exacerbating the situation for the industry. dire than in the third scenario and future economic
upswings could be leveraged more effectively.
II. The Italian architecture, engineering, and construction industry by 2025
The same process as before was performed for the identified by stakeholders, as depicted by Figure 8.
Italian AEC industry. Six critical uncertainties were Namely these were:
8strong personal Scope of
critical unce
Progressive
impact digitization speed of industry digitization
Speed of
bureaucratic
and admin
Wealth of firms
and households
tain r
Key technology DIGITIZED A NEW
tie
development RECESSION HOPE
s
Project
acceptance
Market
attractiveness Low High
trends for investors feasibility of projects feasibility of projects
secondary THE
elements DEPTHS OF A FALSE SENSE
DESPAIR OF SECURITY
weak uncertainty Slow
speed of industry digitization
low high
P Ec S T En L
Figure 8: Figure 9:
Impact/uncertainty grid for the Italian Scenario matrix of the
AEC industry in 2025 Italian AEC industry in 2025
1. Speed of bureaucratic and administrative its most extreme positive and negative manifestation,
processes (economic) four distinct scenarios emerged, as shown Figure 9.
2. Degree of digitisation (technological)
The names of the scenarios give a first indication of
3. Development and availability of key technologies
how the Italian AEC industry could look like in 2025.
(technological)
4. Wealth of firms and households (economic) Using the influence diagram with a total of 21 factors
5. Project acceptance (social) for Italy, depicted by Figure 10, helped to explain the
6. Market attractiveness for investors (economic) developments towards the above scenarios and how
the most important factors could interrelate.
The above critical uncertainties were clustered by
similarity into two dimensions: (1) feasibility of projects Based on this influence diagram the scenarios were
and (2) speed of industry digitisation. described. The respective fact sheets and short
descriptions follow.
Extrapolating the development of each axis towards
time
political stability key technology
and elections development
taxation & fiscal economic scope of
policy integration of EU regulation
work trends
public debt economic and interest rate and sustainability
of Italy financial stability inflation awareness
effect of climate
change
degree of
level of employment financing availability payment morale digitization
mobility trends
wealth of firms speed of admin project
and households processes acceptance
market
attractiveness
expansion of
infrastructure
feasibility of projects speed of industry digitization
Figure 10: Influence diagram of the Italian AEC industry
9cost of borrowing for corporations unemployment GDP growth
10% 20,0% 5%
9% 18,0%
8% 16,0% 4%
7% 14,0%
6% 12,0% 3%
5% 10,0%
4% 8,0% 2%
3% 6,0%
2% 4,0% 1%
1% 2,0%
0% 0,0% 0%
‘18 ‘19 ‘20 ‘21 ‘22 ‘23 ‘24 ‘25 ‘18 ‘19 ‘20 ‘21 ‘22 ‘23 ‘24 ‘25 ‘18 ‘19 ‘20 ‘21 ‘22 ‘23 ‘24 ‘25
industry productivity construction demand construction cost
200 200 200
180 180 180
160 160 160
140 140 140
120 120 120
100 100 100
80 80 80
60 60 60
40 40 40
20 20 20
0 0 0
‘18 ‘19 ‘20 ‘21 ‘22 ‘23 ‘24 ‘25 ‘18 ‘19 ‘20 ‘21 ‘22 ‘23 ‘24 ‘25 ‘18 ‘19 ‘20 ‘21 ‘22 ‘23 ‘24 ‘25
Political stability and conducive regulation cause stable economic growth and processes is drastically improved to 115 days in 2025 compared to 227 in 2018.
significant reduction of public debt that translates into drastically improved payment Environmental awareness, regulation, and digitization drive progressive change in
morale. Industry attractiveness and demand increase significantly. the mobility landscape. Project acceptance and expansion of infrastructure are
Key technology developments and favorable regulation enable a high degree of extensive.
digitization which leads to increasing industry productivity. Speed of administrative Overall, the industry is booming and ready for a prosperous future.
Figure 11: Fact sheet Italy – Scenario A – A new hope
cost of borrowing for corporations unemployment GDP growth
10% 20,0% 5%
9% 18,0%
8% 16,0% 4%
7% 14,0%
6% 12,0% 3%
5% 10,0%
4% 8,0% 2%
3% 6,0%
2% 4,0% 1%
1% 2,0%
0% 0,0% 0%
‘18 ‘19 ‘20 ‘21 ‘22 ‘23 ‘24 ‘25 ‘18 ‘19 ‘20 ‘21 ‘22 ‘23 ‘24 ‘25 ‘18 ‘19 ‘20 ‘21 ‘22 ‘23 ‘24 ‘25
industry productivity construction demand construction cost
200 200
200
180 180
180
160 160
160
140 140
140
120 120
120
100 100
100
80 80
80
60 60
60
40 40
40
20 20
20
0 0
0
‘18 ‘19 ‘20 ‘21 ‘22 ‘23 ‘24 ‘25 ‘18 ‘19 ‘20 ‘21 ‘22 ‘23 ‘24 ‘25
‘18 ‘19 ‘20 ‘21 ‘22 ‘23 ‘24 ‘25
Political stability and favorable regulation facilitates economic growth, increasing sub-contracting low-complexity designs to the low-cost countries in order to
wealth, and reduction of public debt. Payment morale increases and industry achieve arbitrage effects.
attractiveness grows resulting in substantially increasing demand. Speed of Lack of environmental awareness and incentives hinder mobility trends to
administrative processes is drastically improved to 175 days in 2025 compared to materialize. Investment in digital infrastructure is inadequate to prepare the industry
227 in 2018. for the future.
Lack of foresight leads to lacking technological advances causes poor digitization. Advantageous socio-politico-economic conditions conceal structural issues,
Productivity is almost stagnate causing construction cost to increase considerably particularly lack of digit(al)ization. This gives industry players a false sense of
Due to stagnant productivity and increasing demand, Italian AE firms are security.
Figure 12: Fact sheet Italy – Scenario B – A false sense of security
Scenario A – A new hope Scenario B – A false sense of security
After recessive and stagnant years, the Italian AEC Beneficial socio-politico-conditions have stimulated
industry is finally booming due to advantageous socio- construction demand and its feasibility. However,
politico-economic conditions and high project feasibility. digitisation is still lacking, keeping productivity
Moreover, productivity gains can be achieved by leveraging stagnant. AEC players are barely stable and susceptible
technological developments due to progressive industry for economic downturns despite the current positive
digitisation speed. Therefore, the Italian AEC industry has situation giving them ‘A false sense of security’.
‘A new hope’.
10cost of borrowing for corporations unemployment GDP growth
10% 20,0% 2,5%
9% 18,0%
8% 16,0% 1,5%
7% 14,0%
6% 12,0% 0,5%
5% 10,0%
4% 8,0% 0,0%
3% 6,0%
2% 4,0% -1,5%
1% 2,0%
0% 0,0% -2,5%
‘18 ‘19 ‘20 ‘21 ‘22 ‘23 ‘24 ‘25 ‘18 ‘19 ‘20 ‘21 ‘22 ‘23 ‘24 ‘25 ‘18 ‘19 ‘20 ‘21 ‘22 ‘23 ‘24 ‘25
industry productivity construction demand construction cost
200 200 200
180 180 180
160 160 160
140 140 140
120 120 120
100 100 100
80 80 80
60 60 60
40 40 40
20 20 20
0 0 0
‘18 ‘19 ‘20 ‘21 ‘22 ‘23 ‘24 ‘25 ‘18 ‘19 ‘20 ‘21 ‘22 ‘23 ‘24 ‘25 ‘18 ‘19 ‘20 ‘21 ‘22 ‘23 ‘24 ‘25
Political instability and regulatory chaos cause negative GDP growth and public rampant consolidation that ensues due to increasing cost pressure and
debt to increase. Payment morale and industry attractiveness deteriorate. decreasing demand.
Construction demand decreases. Speed of administrative processes has Lack of environmental awareness and incentives hinder mobility trends to
deteriorated to 300 days in 2025 compared to 227 in 2018. materialize. Investment in digital infrastructure is inadequate to prepare the
Technological progress has come to a halt and jointly with unfavorable industry for the future.
socio-politico-economic conditions causes digitization speed to slow drastically. Overall the industry is in one of the deepest recessions the country has ever seen.
Productivity is stagnant. Structural issues prevent a fast recovery.
Sub-contracting to low-cost countries cannot mitigate cost pressure and stop
Figure 13: Fact sheet Italy – Scenario C – The depths of despair
cost of borrowing for corporations unemployment GDP growth
10% 20,0% 2,5%
9% 18,0%
8% 16,0% 1,5%
7% 14,0%
6% 12,0% 0,5%
5% 10,0%
4% 8,0% 0,0%
3% 6,0%
2% 4,0% -1,5%
1% 2,0%
0% 0,0% -2,5%
‘18 ‘19 ‘20 ‘21 ‘22 ‘23 ‘24 ‘25 ‘18 ‘19 ‘20 ‘21 ‘22 ‘23 ‘24 ‘25 ‘18 ‘19 ‘20 ‘21 ‘22 ‘23 ‘24 ‘25
industry productivity construction demand construction cost
200 200 200
180 180 180
160 160 160
140 140 140
120 120 120
100 100 100
80 80 80
60 60 60
40 40 40
20 20 20
0 0 0
‘18 ‘19 ‘20 ‘21 ‘22 ‘23 ‘24 ‘25 ‘18 ‘19 ‘20 ‘21 ‘22 ‘23 ‘24 ‘25 ‘18 ‘19 ‘20 ‘21 ‘22 ‘23 ‘24 ‘25
Wealth of firms and households is decreasing, payment morale is deteriorating, and actively consolidate the market to become one-stop-shops.
public debt increasing due to detrimental economic policies and regulation. Strict environmental regulation and awareness, as well as digitization drive the
Demand is shrinking while a skilled labor shortage ensues. Speed of administrative adoption of new mobility concepts and limit the adverse impact on the environment.
processes has increased to 250 days in 2025 compared to 227 in 2018.
While the economy is in a recession, investments in digit(al)ization could be
Technological breakthroughs drive progressive digitization that facilitates leveraged in an improved economic situation.
productivity gains. Shrinking demand forces price war in which many AEC firms
cannot last in a capital-stripped situation. Larger firms with more financial power
Figure 14: Fact sheet Italy – Scenario D – Digitised recession
Scenario C – The depths of despair Scenario D – Digitised recession
The economic and political situation has taken a turn In the face of deteriorating economic and political
for the worse, driving construction cost up and its conditions, technological development and its
demand down. Concurrently, technological adoption adoption have been showing great appeal and
has stagnated, hindering relief through non-demand support. Once this ‘Digitised recession’ subsides, the
measures. Consequently, the Italian AEC industry is AEC industry is set to fully benefit from its high degree
now in ‘The depths of despair’. of digitisation.
11III. Strategic Implications all customers touchpoints
Attentive readers have already discerned that the • Achieve brand differentiation by building on important,
scenario axes for the German and Italian scenarios perceivable, inimitable and efficient distinction criteria
were identical. What is more, 27 of the 40 individually such as sustainability and digital & innovation leadership
determined factors overlapped. Consequently, the
(4) Exert political influence
most essential strategic implications for the German
• Support stability-inducing political parties through
and Italian AEC industry largely converge. Below core
donations, political education campaigns to encourage
strategy was formulated to benefit from developments
voter participation, and political organisations
along the scenario axes and individual factors. It was
• Lobby political parties to support regulation in line with
assumed that organisations strive towards to most
strategic goals (both stricter and less strict regulation
positive scenario (‘Digitised boom’ and ‘A new hope’).
could be beneficial depending on organisational
a. Leverage high feasibility of projects by capabilities)
stimulating strong and sustainable growth
(5) Improve the competitive position
(1) Increase capacities and capture demand • Analyse existing product portfolio to identify profitable
Increase productivity and unprofitable segments; focus resources on promising
• Adopt technological solutions such as electronic segments while discarding less-promising ones
tendering, 3D laser technologies, and BIM • Actively seek collaborations with competitors to attract
• Adopt digital processes with single source of truth, larger projects and thus stimulate growth (measure risks
including digital project planning, and integrated project vs. reward carefully)
delivery • Find collaboration partners, such as startups, and
• Optimisation of design and engineering processes through foster innovation to develop value-adding services and
repeatable designs (stored in a standard design library) innovative solutions
and tighter collaboration with contractors similar to the • Evaluate collaboration with construction firms and other
automotive industry players along the value chain to increase productivity,
• Attract and retain skilled staff cost-efficiency, and transparency
• Establish a common culture with shared values b. Embrace progressive speed of industry
• Offer remote work and flextime digitisation to become an industry leader
• Tighter collaboration with schools and universities (e.g.
open work days) (6) Embrace digit(al)isation as a first mover
• Headhunting and professional social media presence • Develop milestone plan to actively structure digit(al)isation
• Expansion process, including clear assignment of responsibilities
• Increase penetration of existing products in existing within the organisation, such as BIM manager or chief
market digital/technology officer
• Expand into new market with existing products (e.g. • Anchor digitalisation in the core strategy and
geographical extension in wealthy regions) communicate approach transparently to foster employee
• Diversify product portfolio with innovative solutions commitment and compliance while addressing
• Sub-contracting reservations
• Fulfill excess demand by outsourcing low-complexity low • Modernise IT department (and view it as strategic partner)
risk designs to low-cost providers (in low cost-countries) and disseminate common software solutions as to
prevent IT becoming the bottleneck of internal digitisation
(2) Foster organisational excellence • Establish single sources of truth by digitising processes,
• Center organisation around a common purpose that project management, and documentation to foster
penetrates all (strategic) decisions to provide internal and collaboration, transparency, and efficiency
external orientation even in times of uncertainty • Digitise: design management, scheduling, quality control,
• Structure organisation to clearly reflect accountabilities contract management, document management…
and decision rights while keeping hierarchies flat and • Gather customer data, e.g. through a mobile app providing
permeable to foster agility and to break-up silos customers comprehensive overview of project status,
• View HR as a strategic partner to attract, retain and analyse said data based upon which new revenue models
develop talent by aligning employee performance should be created
management with strategic goals
• Establish shared set of values and beliefs that views (7) Foster a startup culture
change as an opportunity (more so than threat) to foster • Collaborate with researchers and startups to explore
agility and proactiveness innovative solution; this could be done in organisation-
• Streamline and digitise processes, tools, and knowledge operated innovation laboratories or in collaborative
management settings
• Build on the culture of progressive thinker fostered
(3) Increase brand recognition through organisational excellence to establish holistic
• Establish a clear brand identity consisting of vision, values approaches characterised by interdisciplinarity and no-silo
and capabilities that is communicated consistently across thinking
12• Establish lean processes to reduce resource waste (time is IV. Conclusion
a resource!); center work-streams around pull approaches
Above scenarios are not expected to become reality one
and solution-centric activities to foster innovation and
day. Rather they are designed to be one or more plausible
agility
realities that could happen given certain directions of
(8) Develop a matchmaking platform change. In that sense they are a dynamic impetus for a
Develop a matchmaking platform that discussion on how the AEC industry should prepare for
• Aggregates global tender information to connect different the future and its challenges. Consequently, the derived
industry player strategies should also constitute the basis for further
discussion. In any case the above scenarios draw a picture
• Reduces high complexity by providing transparency in
that clinches the high probability of changing industry
industry characterised by opaqueness and information
foundations. By embracing this change, organisations can
asymmetries
and should prepare themselves for an uncertain future
• Facilitates higher sales volumes and improves capacity to ultimately become more resilient towards shifting
utilisation dynamics in the AEC industry.
ITA
Gli sviluppi del settore AEC in Germania e Italia entro il 2025
Scenari plausibili e implicazioni strategiche
di KRISTIAN KERSTING
Il settore dell’architettura, dell’ingegneria e delle costruzioni (AEC) in 5. Stabilità economica (economico)
Germania e Italia è caratterizzato da una produttività paralizzata e da 6. Sviluppo delle tecnologie chiave (tecnologico)
un basso grado di digitalizzazione. I recenti progressi tecnologici e gli 7. Stabilità politica ed elezioni (politico)
sviluppi del mercato hanno messo in discussione questo status-quo. Raggruppando queste incertezze critiche per vicinanza tematica,
Valutare come questo settore sarà interessato da tali cambiamenti è emergono due dimensioni: (1) fattibilità dei progetti, determinata da
quindi non solo una questione di interesse, ma anche di sopravvivenza fattori socio-politico-economici e (2) velocità della digitalizzazione del
per molti stakeholder. settore, guidata dagli sviluppi tecnologici e dalla loro adozione. Usando
Stabilire come sarà il futuro non è semplice, poiché il settore AEC queste due dimensioni come assi per la matrice relativa allo scenario ed
(e, in relazione a questo tema, la maggior parte, se non tutti, i settori estrapolando lo sviluppo di ciascun asse nella sua manifestazione più
industriali) e le sue dinamiche di mercato sono caratterizzate da un alto positiva e più negativa, emergono quattro diversi scenari, come mostra
grado di complessità, ambiguità e volatilità. La combinazione di queste la Figura 2. Dare un nome a questi scenari permette di indentificare
tre dimensioni genera una profonda incertezza che può essere definita come sarà il settore AEC in Germania nel 2025.
come l’incapacità dell’individuo di predire il futuro con cura. Ignorare o Successivamente, è stato necessario arricchire la storia che ha gene-
sottostimare l’incertezza minaccia in modo sostanziale il successo delle rato il nome di ciascuno scenario, utilizzando il diagramma di influen-
organizzazioni, lasciandole scoperte davanti al cambiamento ambien- za che illustra la relazione di causa-effetto tra i trend più rilevanti, le
tale e ignare delle potenziali opportunità. L’incertezza deve, quindi, incertezze critiche e le due incertezze chiave. La selezione e la relazione
essere incorporata nel piano strategico, cosa che può essere facilitata in di fattori sono state discusse durante un workshop con Stefano Susani,
diversi modi, come ad esempio attraverso lo "Scenario-based strategic Jeffrey Seeck e Giovanni Acciaro di NET, per assicurare plausibilità e
planning". coerenza a tutti gli scenari. Sono stati scelti in totale 25 fattori, la cui
Questo approccio si è dimostrato prezioso nello sviluppo di quattro complessa relazione è rappresentata nella Figura 3.
scenari plausibili per il settore AEC in Germania e Italia entro il 2025. Questo diagramma è la base per la descrizione dei quattro scenari
Successivamente, sono state individuate strategie adatte agli sviluppi specifici. Per soddisfare la complessità di tutti i fattori coinvolti, la tesi
futuri attraverso la valutazione qualitativa e quantitativa di oltre 160 sta- originale prevedeva oltre due pagine di descrizione di ciascun scena-
keholder interni ed esterni, inclusi i clienti, i competitor, gli enti regolatori rio. Per motivi di sintesi, invece, questo articolo riporta la tabella degli
e le istituzioni finanziarie. Questo ha permesso di incorporare un ampio indicatori più importanti e una breve descrizione
set di prospettive con l’obiettivo di contrastare possibili errori e assicura-
re plausibilità agli scenari individuati. L’aggregazione dei risultati a partire a. Scenario A – Boom digitale
dai feedback degli stakeholder ha prodotto 40 fattori che abbracciano Lo scenario "Boom digitale" è caratterizzato da condizioni socio-po-
gli sviluppi in Germania e Italia da un punto di vista politico, economico, litico-economiche positive che generano ulteriore crescita del già
sociale, tecnologico, ecologico e legale. Gli stakeholder hanno valutato i promettente settore AEC in Germania. Inoltre, offre notevoli opportunità
fattori relativi alla forza dell’impatto e al grado di incertezza su una scala per accrescere preventivamente una produttività stagnante attraver-
da 1 a 10. so una progressiva velocità di digitalizzazione. In questo scenario gli
I. Il settore dell’architettura, dell’ingegneria e delle costruzioni in stakeholder del settore industriale hanno riconosciuto la necessità di
Germania entro il 2025 investimenti a lungo termine per assicurare una crescita e una stabilità
prolungate.
La Figura 1 mostra i risultati relativi ai feedback degli stakeholder appar-
tenenti al settore AEC in Germania. I sette fattori posizionati nell’angolo b. Scenario B – La trappola della noncuranza
in alto a destra erano caratterizzati da un alto grado di incertezza e forte "La trappola della noncuranza" è simile allo scenario "Boom digitale" per
impatto sul settore industriale. Quindi, possono essere considerati come quanto riguarda i fondamenti socio-politico-economici. Comunque,
le incertezze critiche relative al settore AEC in Germania. Questi fattori a causa dell’assenza di adozioni tecnologiche, il settore si caratterizza
sono: per una continua produttività stagnante che sostanzialmente accresce
1. Crescita delle remunerazioni (economico) il costo di costruzione. A causa di una situazione per lo più di buona
2. Consenso sul progetto (sociale) richiesta, gli stakeholder si accontentano dello status-quo e quindi
3. Grado e complessità delle leggi (legale) trascurano la possibilità di impegnarsi in investimenti a lungo termine
4. Grado di digitalizzazione (tecnologico) in ambito tecnologico. Comunque, questa noncuranza è una trappola
13poiché non prepara a tempi meno prosperi. definire gli scenari tedeschi e italiani sono identici. Inoltre, 24 dei 40
c. Scenario C – Dopo il boom viene il crollo fattori determinati individualmente si sovrappongono. Di conseguenza,
le principali implicazioni strategiche per il settore AEC in Germania e
Nello scenario "Dopo il boom viene il crollo" la situazione socio-politi- in Italia convergono ampiamente. Di seguito è descritto il cuore della
co-economica positiva degli anni precedenti al 2020 ha fatto spazio strategia per beneficiare degli sviluppi relativi agli assi dello scenario e ai
a un periodo di recessione, che dà luogo a sua volta a un periodo di inat- fattori individuali. Si presume che le organizzazioni siano orientate verso
tività e a trend di consolidamento. A causa di una pressione finanziaria lo scenario più positivo (Boom digitale e Una nuova speranza).
crescente, gli agognati investimenti non sono più fattibili, esasperando
la situazione di questo settore industriale. a. Fare leva sull’alta fattibilità dei progetti stimolando una crescita
forte e sostenibile
d. Scenario D – Crollo digitale
(1) Aumentare le capacità e stimolare la domanda
Nel "Crollo digitale" l’economia è soggetta a regressione e genera una
diminuzione nella domanda. Comunque, gli stakeholder del settore Accrescere la produttività
sapevano, con lungimiranza, che nessun boom avrebbe potuto durare • Implementare soluzioni tecnologiche come l’informatizzazione dei
per sempre e quindi hanno previsto i necessari investimenti in ambito processi di gara, le tecnologie laser 3D e il BIM
tecnologico. Conseguentemente, la loro situazione è meno disperata • Adottare processi digitali con informazioni centralizzate in basi dati
che nel terzo scenario e la futura crescita economica potrebbe essere univoche, inclusi il “digital project planning” e l’ “integrated project
utilizzata a proprio vantaggio in modo più efficace. delivery”
I. Il settore dell’architettura, dell’ingegneria e delle costruzioni in • Ottimizzazione dei processi progettuali e di ingegnerizzazione, facen-
Italia entro il 2025 do ricorso a progetti riutilizzabili (archiviati in un database standardiz-
Lo stesso processo è stato applicato al settore AEC italiano. Gli sta- zato) e a una più stretta collaborazione con i contractor, come accade
keholder hanno identificato sei incertezze critiche, come mostrato nella nell'industria automobilistica
Figura 8: Attrarre e trattenere personale qualificato
1. Velocità dei processi burocratici e amministrativi (economico) • Instaurare una cultura comune attraverso la condivisione dei valori
2. Grado di digitalizzazione (tecnologico)
3. Sviluppo e disponibilità di tecnologie chiave (tecnologico) • Offrire la possibilità di lavorare a distanza e flessibilità di orario
4. Prosperità di aziende e abitazioni (economico) • Istituire collaborazioni più strette con scuole e università (ad es. gior-
5. Consenso sul progetto (sociale) nate lavorative “open day”)
6. Attrattività del mercato per gli investitori (economico) • Ricercare talenti e stabilire una presenza professionale sui social
Le appena nominate incertezze critiche sono state raggruppate per media
somiglianza in due dimensioni: (1) fattibilità dei progetti e (2) velocità Espansione
di digitalizzazione del settore industriale. Estrapolando lo sviluppo di
• Aumentare il tasso di penetrazione dei servizi esistenti nell’attuale
ciascun asse nella sua manifestazione più positiva e più negativa,
mercato
emergono i quattro diversi scenari rappresentati nella Figura 9. I nomi di
questi scenari danno una prima indicazione di come potrebbe essere il • Espandersi in nuovi mercati con i servizi esistenti (ad es. stabilendo
settore AEC nel 2025. una presenza geografica in regioni ricche)
L’utilizzo del diagramma di influenza con un totale di 21 fattori per l’Italia, • Diversificare il portafoglio prodotti con soluzioni innovative
così come rappresentato nella Figura 10, ha aiutato a spiegare gli svi- Sub-contracting
luppi verso gli scenari appena menzionati e come i fattori più importanti • Soddisfare la domanda in eccesso esternalizzando progetti a basso
possono essere collegati tra loro. rischio e di scarsa complessità verso fornitori a basso costo (in paesi
Gli scenari sono stati descritti a partire da questo diagramma di influen- low-cost)
za, così come rappresentato di seguito. (2) Promuovere l'eccellenza organizzativa
a. Scenario A – Una nuova speranza • Focalizzare l'organizzazione su un obiettivo comune che permei tutte
Dopo anni di recessione e immobilità, il settore AEC italiano finalmente le decisioni (strategiche) per fornire orientamento interno ed esterno
rifiorisce grazie a condizioni socio-politico-economiche vantaggiose e a anche in tempi di incertezza
un’alta fattibilità dei progetti. Inoltre, è possibile accrescere la produt- • Strutturare l'organizzazione in modo da riflettere chiaramente le
tività facendo leva sugli sviluppi tecnologici dovuti a una progressiva responsabilità e i processi decisionali, mantenendo gerarchie piatte e
velocità di digitalizzazione del settore. In conclusione, il settore AEC fluide a favore dell'agilità e dell’apertura dei “silos organizzativi”
italiano ha "Una nuova speranza".
• Considerare il dipartimento Risorse Umane come partner strategico
b. Scenario B – Un falso senso di sicurezza per attrarre, trattenere e sviluppare talenti allineando la gestione delle
Condizioni socio-politiche vantaggiose hanno stimolato la domanda performance dei dipendenti con gli obiettivi strategici
di costruzione e la sua fattibilità. Comunque, c’è ancora assenza di • Stabilire un insieme condiviso di valori e credenze che considerano il
digitalizzazione, cosa che mantiene la produttività stagnante. I player cambiamento come un'opportunità (più che una minaccia) per favori-
del settore AEC sono faticosamente stabili e sensibili alla regressione re l'agilità e la proattività
economica, nonostante l’attuale situazione positiva dia loro "Un falso
senso di sicurezza". • Semplificare e digitalizzare processi, strumenti e gestione della
conoscenza
c. Scenario C – Una profonda disperazione
(3) Accrescere la riconoscibilità del marchio
La situazione politica ed economica si è volta al peggio, accrescendo
i costi di costruzione e diminuendone la domanda. Allo stesso tempo, • Costruire una chiara identità di marca, costituita da una “vision”, un
l’adozione tecnologica è immobile, ostacolando la “riparazione” attraver- set di valori e un portfolio di competenze, che venga comunicata in
so misure non-demand. Come conseguenza, il settore AEC italiano è in modo coerente attraverso tutti i canali di contatto verso i clienti
"Una profonda disperazione". • Conseguire la differenziazione del marchio facendo leva su criteri
d. Scenario D – Recessione digitale distintivi autorevoli, percepibili, inimitabili ed efficienti come la sosteni-
bilità e la leadership nel campo dell’innovazione digitale
Di fronte a condizioni politiche ed economiche peggiorative, lo sviluppo
tecnologico e la sua messa in atto mostrano grande attrattività e (4) Esercitare un’influenza in campo politico
supporto. Una volta che questa "Recessione digitale" inizierà a calare, • Sostenere i partiti che inducono alla stabilità del sistema attraverso
il settore AEC è pronto a beneficiare pienamente del suo alto livello di donazioni, campagne di sensibilizzazione per incoraggiare la parteci-
digitalizzazione. pazione degli elettori, e le fondazioni di natura politica
II. Implicazioni strategiche • Fare pressione sui partiti politici per sostenere processi legislativi in
I lettori più attenti avranno già notato che gli assi della matrice per linea con gli obiettivi strategici (a seconda delle capacità organizza-
14Puoi anche leggere
