Soclimpact Local Working Group
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Soclimpact
This project has received funding from the European Union’s
Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant
agreement No776661
Soclimpact
Local Working Group
Sala Convegni Mons. Leonardo Bruno (Stella Maris)
Porto di Palermo, Sicilia (Italy)
22 Giugno 2018 – h 9.00 – 13.30
Programma
9:15 – 9:45 Saluti di benvenuto
Dott. Pasqualino Monti
Presidente dell’Autorità di Sistema Portuale del Mare di
Sicilia occidentale
Introduzione
Dott. Renato Coroneo
Segretario Generale dell’Autorità di Sistema Portuale del
Mare di Sicilia occidentale
9:45 – 10:00 Presentazione generale del progetto SOCLIMPACT
Prof. Giovanni Ruggieri
Presidente dell’Osservatorio sul Turismo delle Isole
Europee
Dott.ssa Elodie Briche
Tec Conseil et recherche en politiques climatiques
10:00 – 10:15 Presentazione dei partecipanti
10:15 – 11:00 Prima tavola rotonda: stato dell’arte dell’economia
blue, indirizzi di adattamento e dati
Dott.ssa Giacoma Brancato
Osservatorio sul Turismo delle Isole Europee
11:00 – 11:30 Cofee break
Seconda tavola rotonda: impatti prioritari,
11:30 – 12:30 presentazione delle catene di impatto (primi risultati
di Soclimpact)
Dott.ssa Giacoma Brancato
Osservatorio sul Turismo delle Isole Europee
Soclimpact
This project has received funding from the
European Union’s Horizon 2020 research
2
and innovation programme under grant
agreement No776661
Presentazione
generale
Soclimpact
This project has received funding from the
European Union’s Horizon 2020 research
3
and innovation programme under grant
agreement No776661
Presentazione
Progetto UE di ricerca H2020 categoria “Climate Action,
Environment, Resource Efficiency and Raw Materials”
Soclimpact
“DownScaling CLImate ImPACTs and decarbonisation pathways
in EU islands, and enhancing socioeconomic and non-market
evaluation of Climate Change for Europe, for 2050 and Beyond.”
Scopo del progetto
• Definire modelli e valutare gli impatti regionali del
cambiamento climatico ed i percorsi a bassa emissione di
carbonio, nelle isole e negli arcipelaghi europei per il periodo
2050 – 2100.
• Completare le proiezioni disponibili, valutando gli impatti
economici del cambiamneto climatico, e sviluppando i
percorsi di adadttamento.
Avvio del progetto
30 Gennaio 2018 a Las Palmas de Gran Canaria – Durata 3 anni
Soclimpact
This project has received funding from the
European Union’s Horizon 2020 research
4
and innovation programme under grant
agreement No776661
Le isole del partenariato
Soclimpact
This project has received funding from the
European Union’s Horizon 2020 research
5
and innovation programme under grant
agreement No776661
24 partners
No Participant organisation Acronym Country
1 UNIVERSIDAD DE LAS PALMAS DE GRAN CANARIA (Coordinator) ULPGC ES
2 INSTITUTO TECNOLOGICO DE CANARIAS S.A. ITC ES
3 UNIVERSITAT DE LES ILLES BALEARS UIB ES
4 CENTRO TECNOLOGICO DE CIENCIAS MARINAS CETECIMA ES
5 UNIVERSIDAD DE CASTILLA LA MANCHA UCLM ES
6 INSTITUTE OF ECONOMIC STRUCTURES RESEARCH GWS MBH DE
7 TOURISME TERRITOIRES TRANSPORTS ENVIRONNEMENT CONSEIL TEC FR
8 AGENCIA REGIONAL DA ENERGIA E AMBIENTE DA REGIAO AUTONOMA DA MADEIRA AREAM PO
9 CYPRUS INTITUTE: THE ENERGY, ENVIRONMENT & WATER RESEARCH CENTRE CYI CY
10 NATIONAL OBSERVATORY OF ATHENS NOA GR
11 OSSERVATORIO SUL TURISMO DELLE ISOLE EUROPEE OTIE IT
12 ANCI SARDINIA ANCI IT
13 AQUABIOTECH ABT ML
14 INTERFUSION IF CY
15 BUCKINGHAMSHIRE NEW UNIVERSITY BNU UK
16 AGENZIA NAZIONALE PER LE NUOVE TECNOLOGIE, L'ENERGIA E LO SVILUPPO ENEA IT
ECONOMICO SOSTENIBILE
17 UNIVERSITÉ DES ANTILLES UA FR
18 E3-MODELLING IKE e3modelling GR
19 BALTIC ENVIRONMENTAL FORUM BEF Germany DE
20 UNIVERSITY OF BOLOGNA - UNIBO IT
21 CENTRO EURO-MEDITERRANEO SUI CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICI Fondazione CMCC IT
22 UNIVERSITY OF LISBON - Fundacao da Faculdade de Ciencias F Ciencias ID PO
23 UNIVERSITY OF FRANKFURT GUF DE
24 REGION OF CRETE Kriti GR
Soclimpact
This project has received funding from the
European Union’s Horizon 2020 research
6
and innovation programme under grant
agreement No776661
12 Isole Europee
Açores Baléares Baltiques
Canaries Corse Crête
Chypre Antilles Madère
Malte Sardaigne Sicile
Comprendere l’impatto del cambiamento climatico e
le opzioni di adattamento nelle isole
Soclimpact
This project has received funding from the
European Union’s Horizon 2020 research
7
and innovation programme under grant
agreement No7766614 settori dell’economia blu
Turismo costiero e marittimo
Acquacultura
Energia marina
Trasporto marittimo
Comprendere la vulnerabilità al cambiamento
climatico dell’economia blu
Soclimpact
This project has received funding from the
European Union’s Horizon 2020 research
8
and innovation programme under grant
agreement No7766618 Pacchetti di lavoro
Soclimpact
This project has received funding from the
European Union’s Horizon 2020 research
9
and innovation programme under grant
agreement No776661Qual é il valore
aggiunto
scientifico di
SOCLIMPACT ?
Soclimpact
This project has received funding from the
European Union’s Horizon 2020 research
10
and innovation programme under grant
agreement No776661Valore aggiunto
Isole: capire l’impatto dei cambiamenti climatici e le
opzioni di adattamento in aree fragili e poco valutate
Contributo di VA per 12 isole; regioni periferiche; prospettive regionali…
Blue economy: capire l’impatto dei cambiamenti
climatici sulla Blue Economy
Importante per la strategia EU sulla Blue Economy
Combinare adattamento e mitigazione
Resilienza in percorsi a bassa emissione di carbonio
Soclimpact
This project has received funding from the
European Union’s Horizon 2020 research
11
and innovation programme under grant
agreement No776661Valore aggiunto
Risultati specifici per pacchetto di lavoro
• Abbinamento delle raccomandazioni mare-clima (WP4)
• Misurazione degli impatti non commerciali del CC (WP5)
• Introduzione di componenti non commerciali nei modelli econometrici (WP5-
WP6)
• Esame di percorsi di adattamento (WP7)
• …..
Integrazione di scenari e modelli di approccio lungo la catena
PIVA (Progettazione, Impatto, Vulnerabilità, Adattamento)
Il consorzio ricopre tutti i passaggi. Opportunità unica e dialoghi iterdisciplinari
Soclimpact
This project has received funding from the
European Union’s Horizon 2020 research
12
and innovation programme under grant
agreement No776661SOCLIMPACT a supporto della
Strategia della Crescita Blu
Soclimpact
This project has received funding from the
European Union’s Horizon 2020 research
13
and innovation programme under grant
agreement No776661SOCLIMPACT a supporto della
Strategia della Crescita Blu
Soclimpact
This project has received funding from the
European Union’s Horizon 2020 research
14
and innovation programme under grant
agreement No776661Quali sono le
principali sfide per
l’attività di
SOCLIMPACT ?
Soclimpact
This project has received funding from the
European Union’s Horizon 2020 research
15
and innovation programme under grant
agreement No776661Sfide per il LWG e IFP
Definire la complessa «matrice di attuazione» : per WP, per
isola, per settore
Definire ruoli, confermare nomi, definire adempimenti: adempimenti per isola
(non nel DoW), coordinamento per settore, futuri incontri specifici sui punti
focali delle isole e team di settore
Molto di questo é già parte del WP3
Definire le misure di attuazione: aree (Med, Atantico), regioni
(NUTS2), casi di studio
Dipenderà da impatti definiti, disponibilità di dati, strumenti di modellazione….
Da definire nei primi mesi del progetto: elenco degli impatti prioritari, casi di
studio….
Soclimpact
This project has received funding from the
European Union’s Horizon 2020 research
16
and innovation programme under grant
agreement No776661Il WP3 e le catene
di impatto
WP3 - Climate change
vulnerability assessment
framework and complex
impact chains
Soclimpact
This project has received funding from the
European Union’s Horizon 2020 research
17
and innovation programme under grant
agreement No776661Obiettivi generali del WP3
• Ricercare i settori (definizione, statistiche, etc.)
• Dare al progetto una struttura scientifica
• Creazione dei gruppi di lavoro per settore
• “Island focal points” e “local working groups”
• Matrice settori /isole
• Definire un approccio volto alla definizione di
modelli: concetto di catene di impatto
• Chiarimento e definizione di inputs&outputs (grafici,
carte, etc.)
Soclimpact
This project has received funding from the
European Union’s Horizon 2020 research
18
and innovation programme under grant
agreement No776661Le catene di impatto
Concettualizzazione
• Valutazione del rischio climatico nell’AR5
• Dietro le catene degli impatti, il bisogno di formalizzare
l’approccio scientifico degli impatti e dell’adattamento
• Esigenze transdisciplinari e multidisciplinari
Riferimenti:
• Vulnerability sourcebook AR4:
http://www.adaptationcommunity.net/vulnerability-
assessment/vulnerability-sourcebook/
• Complément AR5 : http://www.adaptationcommunity.net/wp-
content/uploads/2017/10/giz_sbv_EN_suppl_v171019_screen_N
EU-3.pdf
Soclimpact
This project has received funding from the
European Union’s Horizon 2020 research
19
and innovation programme under grant
agreement No776661Le catene d’impatto
Concetto di rischio – AR5
Source: GIEC Source: GIZ
Soclimpact
This project has received funding from the
European Union’s Horizon 2020 research
20
and innovation programme under grant
agreement No776661Le workflow
1. Definizione
del contesto di
lavoro
2. Elaborazione
7. Risultati &
delle catene di
validazione
impatto
3. Identificazione
6. Aggregazione & selezione degli
indicatori
5. Ponderazione 4. Normalizzazione
degli indicatori degli indicatori
Soclimpact
This project has received funding from the
European Union’s Horizon 2020 research
21
and innovation programme under grant
agreement No776661Ruolo degli attori
locali
Soclimpact
This project has received funding from the
European Union’s Horizon 2020 research
22
and innovation programme under grant
agreement No776661I « Local Working groups »
Island Focal
Points
Partenariato
Soclimpact Responsabili di
(modellizzazione, settore
etc.)
Stakeholders:
Stakeholders: Stakeholders:
Implicazioni
Politiche Responsabili
settoriali
Soclimpact
This project has received funding from the
European Union’s Horizon 2020 research
23
and innovation programme under grant
agreement No776661Ruolo del gruppo locale
Colaborazione con gli attori locali al fine di
aiutare il partenariato Soclimpact a:
• Raccogliere informazioni sullo stato dell’arte
dell’economia blu
• Raccogliere informazioni sullo stato dell’arte
dell’impatto, la vulnerabilità e la valutazione
del cambiamento climatico
• Comprendere il contesto istituzionale
• Comprendere le basi delle statistiche locali
ed iniziare a raccogliere dati chiave
• Aiutare la disseminazione del progetto
Soclimpact
This project has received funding from the
European Union’s Horizon 2020 research
24
and innovation programme under grant
agreement No776661Ciò di cui beneficiate
• Collaborazione con un progetto europeo di
grande rilievo nell'attuale ricerca sul clima
• Essere i primi beneficiari dei risultati del
progetto:
• Modellizzazione, in scala ridotta, del clima in
Sicilia
• Modellizzazione degli impatti dei cambiamenti
climatici
• Analisi degli impatti socio economici dei settori
dell’economia blu
• Presentazione e discussione dei percorsi di
adattamento
• Tutti questi risultati possono andare ad
alimentare progetti di adattamento per la
Sicilia Soclimpact
This project has received funding from the
European Union’s Horizon 2020 research
25
and innovation programme under grant
agreement No776661Ciò di cui beneficiate
• Accesso ad esempi di Best Practices
relativi ad altri contesti insulari
• Considerazione, per gli attori locali,
all'interno del sito Soclimpact
www.soclimpact.org
• Collegamento con gli approcci europei
per le isole e l'economia blu
Soclimpact
This project has received funding from the
European Union’s Horizon 2020 research
26
and innovation programme under grant
agreement No776661Focal Point per la
Sicilia: OTIE
Soclimpact
This project has received funding from the
European Union’s Horizon 2020 research
27
and innovation programme under grant
agreement No776661Tavola rotonda 1
Stato dell’arte
dell’economia blu,
traiettorie di adattamento
e statistiche
Soclimpact
This project has received funding from the
European Union’s Horizon 2020 research
28
and innovation programme under grant
agreement No776661Domande
• A che punto sono le riflessioni sull'economia blu in
Sicilia?
• Qual è lo stato di avanzamento dei percorsi di
adattamento in Sicilia?
• Qual è il quadro istituzionale delle politiche
climatiche?
• Vi sono specificità/dati disponibili nel sistema
statistico siciliano?
Soclimpact
This project has received funding from the
European Union’s Horizon 2020 research
29
and innovation programme under grant
agreement No776661Tavola Rotonda 2
Impatti prioritari,
presentazione delle catene
di impatto (primi risultati in
corso di Soclimpact)
Soclimpact
This project has received funding from the
European Union’s Horizon 2020 research
30
and innovation programme under grant
agreement No776661Identificazione e selezione degli
impatti prioritari
• Acquacultura
Hazard Direct geophysical impacts Intermediate impacts Socio-economic impacts
Temperature - Increase harmful algal - Changes in production levels
changes of - Decreased oxygen level blooms (decrease or increase in
sea water - Increased Food - Increase in diseases and production)
Conversion ratio parasites - Increase in fouling and pests
- Changes in ranges of
suitable species
- Increased growth rate
- Longer growing season
Changes in - Decreased flushing rates - Accumulation of waste under
currents and (shell fish) cages
waves
Increased - Higher waves and storm - Stock loss
frequency surges - Damage to facility/structure
and intensity - Salinity changes - Need to invest in stronger
of extreme constructions
weather Soclimpact - Higher insurance costs
events This project has received funding from the - Changes in suitability of sites
European Union’s Horizon 2020 research
31
and innovation programme under grant
agreement No776661Formulazione dei rischi prioritari per
il settore
Diminuzione della produzione ittica a causa del
cambiamento di temperatura delle acque superficiali
Aumento della produzione ittica a causa di
cambiamenti nelle caratteristiche e nella temperatura
dell'acqua di mare (positivo)
Aumento della fragilità dell'attività dell'acquacoltura a
causa di eventi estremi
Aumento dell'inquinamento ambientale dei siti di
acquacoltura a causa di cambiamenti nell'idrodinamica
costiera
Soclimpact
This project has received funding from the
European Union’s Horizon 2020 research
32
and innovation programme under grant
agreement No776661Elaborazione delle catene di impatto
HAZARD
Increase in surface
Aquaculture (EU level)
• Esempio water temperature
Marine fish cage aquaculture
VULNERABILITY
INTERMEDIATE IMPACTS
Monitoring early
Increase in Increase in warning systems
occurrence of diseases, pests
harmful algae and fouling
EXPOSURE Know-how of
bloom
recognising and
Sensitivity of treating diseases
Decrease in growth fish species /parasites
Area covered
rate (due to stress)
with sea cages
and/or increase in Availability of
mortalities Suitable
alternative place to
temperature
Number of hold the fish
for fish
aquaculture species
operators Capacity to change
Decrease in fish production fish species
due to surface water RISK
Size of fish temperature change
stock
Soclimpact
This project has received funding from the Socio-economic and
Reduced sales/income Increase in costs
European Union’s Horizon 2020 research
(treatment) environmental impacts 33
and innovation programme under grant
agreement No776661Identificazione e selezione degli impatti
prioritari
• Turismo
Hazard Direct geophysical impacts Intermediate impacts Socio-economic impacts
- Changes in plant-wildlife-insect - Heat stress for tourists affecting
populations and distribution comfort perceptions, demand and
Increase of
(environmental impacts) receipts
temperatures
- Larger range of infectious disease - Increased cooling costs for tourism
- Altered seasonality facilities
- Loss of attractive in sea landscape-
- Increased coral bleaching with
based destinations (dive, snorkel,
Sea surface degradation of biodiversity and sea
bottom-glass ships, …) leading to
temperature rise landscapes
negatively affected demand and
- Arrival of exotic species and
receipts.
impoverishing of local biodiversity
- Increased coastal erosion - Loss of beach area negatively
(more or less, as the human influencing tourism demand.
Sea level rise activity impact coastal - Higher maintenance costs for tourist
erosion) facilities to protect and maintain
waterfronts
- Water shortage and overpricing.
Increased droughts - Degradation of natural habitats - Landscape degradation and
due to reduced - Increased erosion and desertification sightseeing devaluation affecting
rainfall and - Increased wildfires. demand.
increased - Lesser water availability for human - Increased costs of operations in
evapotranspiration uses. tourism facilities caused by loss of local
food supply for tourism.
- Business interruption costs.
Increased - Abrupt changes in coastal
- Demand decrease due to risks.
frequency and sedimentary processes.
Soclimpact - Damages to tourism facilities, historic
intensity of - Beaches degradation due to
This project has received funding from the assets, beaches and infrastructure
extreme climate inland waste and materials
European Union’s Horizon 2020 research increasing costs of maintenance
34 and
events (storms, depositions. and innovation programme under grant insurance.
flooding) agreement No776661Formulazione dei rischi prioritari per il
settore
Perdita di attrattiva che colpisce la
reputazione della destinazione turistica
Perdita di comfort che colpisce la
reputazione della destinazione turistica
Soclimpact
This project has received funding from the
European Union’s Horizon 2020 research
35
and innovation programme under grant
agreement No776661Elaborazione delle catene di
impatto
• Esempio Increase of temperature Climate variability
and climate change
Increase in VULNERABILITY
Droughts
heat waves
Speed of biodiversity degradation
according to the size of the habitat
Factors of sensitivity
INTERMEDIATE Pollution from human activities
IMPACT
EXPOSURE = spatial component Change in
Tourist characteristics :
fauna/flora
Cultural gender, age, values, etc.
wildlife
Nature of exposure Level of exposure identity of
Type of tourism : sport,
Size of countryside tourists
pleasure, nature
area (ha)
Factors of adaptive capacity
Countryside areas observation, hikes etc.
Biodiversity
hotspot RISK
Capacity to repopulate fauna/flora
Size of forest area Loss of natural attractiveness disappeared species
Forests
(ha) affecting the touristic
Density of reputation of the destination
shrubby forest
Socio-economic (and environmental) impacts
Demand reduction for nature-based tourism Costs of diversification strategies in tourism
Reduced perceived well-being, leading to less
activities affecting tourism companies’ companies, due to the lack of tourism nature-
tourism arrivals and receipts
incomes based attractions
Soclimpact
This project has received funding from the
European Union’s Horizon 2020 research
and innovation programme under grant
agreement No776661Identificazione e selezione degli
impatti prioritari
• Trasporto marittimo
Direct geophysical
Hazard Intermediate impacts Socio-economic impacts
impacts
Sea level rise - Floods on ports; - Increased users´risk perception
- Damage to storage capacity. leading to lower rates of
- Damage in ports’ infrastructures and moorings and turnover.
equipment’s (navigation). - Increased costs of maintenance
in nautical installations and
equipments
Increased - Damage to storage capacity - Increased costs for new
frequency and - Damage in ports’ infrastructures and investment and insurance
intensity of equipment’s (navigation). - Carbon tax affects fossil fuel
extreme climate prices.
events (storms, - Less turnover from maritime
flooding) transport activities.
- Disruption costs
Increased - Higher waves - Stock loss
frequency and and storm - Damage to facility/structure
intensity of surges - Need to invest in stronger
extreme weather - Salinity constructions
Soclimpact
events changes This project has received funding from the - Higher insurance costs
European Union’s Horizon 2020 research - Changes in suitability 37of sites
and innovation programme under grant
agreement No776661Formulazione dei rischi prioritari
per il settore
Danni alle infrastrutture portuali e alle attrezzature a
causa di inondazioni (innalzamento del livello del
mare)
Danni alle navi in rotta (in mare aperto e vicino alla
costa) a causa di eventi meteorologici estremi
Rischio di isolamento (beni e servizi) a causa di
interruzioni del trasporto
Soclimpact
This project has received funding from the
European Union’s Horizon 2020 research
38
and innovation programme under grant
agreement No776661Elaborazione delle catene di
impatto
• Esempio HAZARD
Increased frequency of
extreme weather
Rising of sea level
events
Cyclones
Floods and storms
VULNERABILITY
Presence of
dikes/embankments/moles
INTERMEDIATE Factors of
EXPOSURE = spatial component sensitivity
IMPACT Quality of infrastructures and
Nature of exposure Level of exposure equipments (heigh, drainage
system)
Location of Number of
ports and passengers Knowledge and training
marinas Population of RISK
the island
Damages to ports’ Existence and efficiency of an early
Nature of the Goods infrastructures and coastal warning system
transport transported Factors of
equipments due to adaptive
floods capacity
Socio-economic
(and environmental) impacts Risk of isolation
due to transport
disruption
RISK
Economic Soclimpact
Changes in market Less turnover from More intensive use
New routes for
investment in new tendecies (demand maritime transport of the airplane
port infrastructures
This project
transport has received
in goods)
funding from activities
the
European Union’s Horizon 2020 research
39
and innovation programme under grant
agreement No776661Identificazione e selezione degli impatti
prioritari
• Energia marina
Hazard Socio-economic impacts
Increased frequency and intensity of - Increase cost of maintenance, insurance and adaptation actions to increase
extreme climate events resilience and reduce vulnerability of energy infrastructures
- Stressed energy demand by demand rising for electricity
Temperature rise - Higher energy demand for cooling and water production (sea and brackish water
desalination)
- Increased costs for design and implementation of measures/policies to reduce
Sea level rise
the vulnerability of energy infrastructure to flooding
Lack of rain and increased
- Increased costs of sea-water reverse osmosis desalination for covering water needs.
evapotranspiration
Concentration of CO2 - Increased costs of operations due to electricity consumption for air-conditioning
- Higher variations in energy demand due to larger temperature variability will require
Soclimpact
more flexible energy systems (more expensive)
Interannual variability of temperature This
- project
Increase in the energyfunding
has received from
intensity, duethe
to increase in air conditioning
European Union’s Horizon 2020 research
- Increase in peak power demand 40
and innovation programme under grant
agreement No776661Formulazione dei rischi prioritari per il
settore
Cambiamenti nella produzione di energia
elettrica
Danneggiamento delle reti e
dell'infrastruttura elettrica a causa di eventi
estremi
Variazione della domanda di energia a
causa dell'aumento delle temperature
Soclimpact
This project has received funding from the
European Union’s Horizon 2020 research
41
and innovation programme under grant
agreement No776661Elaborazione delle catene di
impatto Decrease in surface solar
radiation Decrease in near-surface Hazard
wind
• Esempio
Increase in dust storms
and dust aerosols
Increase of air
temperature
Decrease in PV Intermediate
solar panel Decrease in wind impacts
productivity energy resources
Decrease in solar Decrease in wave
energy resources energy resources
Vulnerability
Diversification of
Exposure renewable energy
sources
Share of
Share of
solar PV Complementarity of
wind energy
energy renewable energy
sources
Share of solar Share of
thermal wave Spatial distribution of
energy energy renewable energy
Risk installations
Decrease in
renewable energy Energy efficiency
production
Energy price increases Increased energy
dependence
Soclimpact Reduced
Increased
This projectinstallation
has received
costs funding
power from the
due to additional demand
European Union’s Horizon coverage
2020 research Socioeconomic
power capacity impacts
and innovation programme under grant
agreement No776661Soclimpact
This project has received funding from the European Union’s
Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant
agreement No776661
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