Le informazioni meteo-climatiche nel settore energetico - Matteo De Felice ENEA, Climate Modeling Laboratory

Le informazioni meteo-
 climatiche nel settore
      energetico

         Matteo De Felice
ENEA, Climate Modeling Laboratory

Clima o meteo?
•   Meteo: la temperatura media a Padova l’8 Ottobre 2011
    era di 11 °C

•   Clima: la temperatura media in Ottobre a Padova è di 20
    °C (calcolo 2000-2012)

•   E le previsioni?

Previsioni meteo e previsioni
             climatiche

                                                                    meteo
Previsioni short-range      L       M         M   G

                                                                    previsioni climatiche
 Previsioni stagionali      JJA   JAS ASO OND

  Previsioni decadali       2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Proiezioni multi-decadali    2013       ...   2030 2040 2050 2060
    (climate change)

Informazioni o dati climatici?

•   I dati climatici a disposizione sono molti e
    continuano a crescere (ad es. maggiore risoluzione)

•   Ma i dati possono divenire informazioni utili?

Servizi climatici
•   Global Framework on Climate Services (GFCS) ,
    WMO 2009

•   Produzione e “traduzione” delle informazioni
    climatiche per contesti specifici

•   In Europa? Progetti (FP7 CLIM-RUN, EUPORIAS,
    SPECS), iniziative comunitarie (COPERNICUS),
    iniziative e mercati nazionali

Copernicus
•   Iniziativa coordinata e gestita dalla Commissione
    Europea

•   Sistemi di monitoraggio e uso dei dati per servizi e
    applicazioni

•   www.copernicus.eu

Clima & Energia
  Supply             Market   Demand
Renewable Energies

  Thermal Power

Energy Sector Vulnerability

•   E.g. During European 2003 heat-wave France reduced
    electricity export in August of 50% (EDF)

          […] a summer average decrease in capacity of power plants of
               6.3–19% in Europe and 4.4–16% in the United States
            depending on cooling system type and climate scenario for
              2031–2060. In addition, probabilities of extreme (>90%)
           reductions in thermoelectric power production will on average
                            increase by a factor of three.
           (van Vliet et al., Vulnerability of US and European electricity supply to
                    climate change, Nature Climate Change 2(9), 2012)

Un esempio di servizio

      -   Collaborazione tra ENEA e TERNA dal
          2012
      -   Obiettivi specifici…
      -   …con processi iterativi: nuove risponde
          hanno sempre portato a nuove domande
      -   Due argomenti: energie rinnovabili e
          fabbisogno elettrico

Electricity Demand
•   Electricity demand sensitive to weather conditions
•   Currently only climatological data are used for time-scales >14
    days
•   Demand affected by “human activities” (calendar effects) and
    economic trends

Electricity Demand
•   Electricity Demand…
    • …and how it is affected by temperature
    • …and its predictability at short-time scales

               M. De Felice, A. Alessandri, and P. M. Ruti, “Electricity Demand
             Forecasting over Italy: Potential Benefits using Numerical Weather
             Prediction models,” Electric Power Systems Research, vol. 104, pp.
                                         71-79, 2013.

A question…
What has happened?

Observe

Electricity Demand…

E nei prossimi mesi?

Going seasonal
✦   What will be the probability of having the demand
    above/below the normal?

✦   Use of “statistical downscaling” of seasonal forecasts

✦   Interesting result: significant skill on some Italian
    regions with one-month of lead time

                  De Felice M., Alessandri A., and F. Catalano,
                  “Seasonal climate forecasts for medium-term
               electricity demand forecasting,” Applied Energy, vol.
                              137, pp. 435-444, 2015

A possible approach
•   Find the relationship between seasonal forecast
    patterns and observed demand

              Principal Component Analysis (PCA)

Seasonal Forecast
VAR1 MEM1 PC1

VAR1 MEM1 PC2
                          ML
                         Method

VAR1 MEM1 PC3
                                     Target
                                  (predictand)

VAR_X MEM_Y PC_Z

A possible product

Next steps…
Extending to Europe (ENTSO-E)

Electricity Exchange

    European electricity flows for Jan-Feb (left) and
  June-July (right) – red nodes are the main exporters
  and blue the main importers – Data from ENTSO-E
                       (2003-2014)

Flows

Supply: solar power
  •    Photovoltaics: estimate & predict

                                                                            How much we will
                                                                          produce next summer?
      How much are we
      producing now?                               How much we will
                                                  produce tomorrow?

M. De Felice, M. Petitta, and P. M. Ruti, “Short-term predictability of
photovoltaic production over Italy,” Renewable Energy, vol. 80, pp.
                           197-204, 2015.

E nei prossimi mesi?
•   Work in progress

•   Analisi dei dataset e dei forecast disponibili

>>> matteodefelice.name/research

>>> matteo.defelice@enea.it