Trends and risks of the Italian financial system in a comparative perspective - 2022 July - Consob

Statistics and analyses

Trends and risks
of the Italian financial system
in a comparative perspective

July

2022

Congiuntura e rischi
 del sistema finanziario italiano
 in una prospettiva comparata

Il presente Rapporto è stato curato da:
Nadia Linciano (coordinatrice), Valeria Caivano, Daniela Costa, Francesco Fancello, Monica Gentile.
Lucia Pierantoni ha contribuito alle analisi relative a mercato obbligazionario e banche italiane (Sezioni 3 e
5).

Le opinioni espresse nel Report sono personali degli autori e non impegnano in alcun modo la CONSOB. Nel
citare i contenuti del rapporto, non è pertanto corretto attribuirli alla CONSOB o ai suoi Vertici. La copia, la
distribuzione e la riproduzione del presente Rapporto, in tutto o in parte, è soggetta a preventiva
autorizzazione scritta da parte della CONSOB.

Segreteria di redazione e progettazione grafica: Eugenia Della Libera e Lucia Pierantoni.
Per informazioni e chiarimenti scrivere a: studi_analisi@consob.it

This Report was prepared by
Nadia Linciano (coordinator), Valeria Caivano, Daniela Costa, Francesco Fancello, Monica Gentile.
Lucia Pierantoni contributed to the analysis relative to bond markets and Italian banks (Sections 3 and 5).

The opinions expressed in this Report are the authors’ personal views and are in no way binding on CONSOB.
Full or partial copying, distribution and reproduction of the Report is subject to prior written authorisation
by CONSOB.

Editorial secretary and graphic design: Eugenia Della Libera and Lucia Pierantoni.
For information and clarifications write to: studi_analisi@consob.it

Tipografia Eurosia Roma, luglio 2022.

Il Rapporto analizza la congiuntura e i rischi
 del sistema finanziario italiano nel confronto internazionale,
avendo riguardo anche alle dinamiche che possono rilevare per il
 raggiungimento degli obiettivi istituzionali della CONSOB.

 The Report analyses trends and risks of the
 Italian financial system in a comparative perspective,
 also with regard to the developments that can affect
 the achievement of CONSOB remit.

 3

Nel primo semestre del 2022 le prospettive di crescita globale sono state
riviste al ribasso a fronte di molteplici fattori: l’invasione dell’Ucraina da
parte della Russia; il riacutizzarsi della pandemia di COVID-19; la dinamica
crescente dell’inflazione alimentata, nell’ultima parte del 2021, dal rialzo dei
prezzi dei beni energetici e da alcune rigidità dell’offerta, e accentuata nel 2022
a seguito dello scoppio del conflitto in Ucraina. Alla luce di tali dinamiche inflattive,
nell’Eurozona è in atto la graduale normalizzazione della politica monetaria, già in corso in altre
economie avanzate. I tassi di interesse, mantenuti su livelli estremamente bassi negli ultimi anni,
sono attesi pertanto in rapida ascesa. In parallelo, a sostegno della crescita e della transizione
verde e digitale, prosegue l’attuazione dei programmi lanciati dalla Commissione europea con il
NGEU. Tali misure si associano a iniziative tese a mitigare gli scenari di recessione che si
prefigurano soprattutto per i paesi connotati da forte dipendenza da fonti energetiche fossili e da
vulnerabilità preesistenti, legate ad esempio a elevati livelli di debito pubblico e privato.
I mercati finanziari delle economie più esposte al peggioramento del quadro macroeconomico
hanno registrato tensioni significative. Dall’inizio dell’anno gli indici azionari S&P500 e
EuroStoxx50 hanno perso entrambi il 20% circa, registrando al contempo un rilevante incremento
della volatilità. Per quanto riguarda il mercato italiano, nel primo semestre del 2022 il Ftse Mib
ha segnato una diminuzione del 22%, superiore a quella rilevata per le altre maggiori economie
dell’Eurozona; la contrazione dei corsi è stata disomogenea tra settori, risultando più intensa nei
comparti tecnologico (-30%) e bancario (-21%).
Anche i mercati secondari dei titoli pubblici nell’area euro hanno registrato tensioni crescenti,
con rialzi nei rendimenti che, rispetto all’inizio dell’anno, sono saliti di oltre il 2% in Italia, e con
un netto incremento della volatilità, che a fine giugno 2022 ha raggiunto i massimi dal 2014.
Analogo andamento si osserva nel mercato secondario dei titoli corporate, dove i rendimenti delle
obbligazioni emesse sia dalle banche sia dalle imprese non finanziarie hanno sperimentato una
crescita costante dall’inizio dell’anno.
In prospettiva, il ciclo economico globale sperimenterà un deterioramento la cui portata sarà
disomogenea tra aree e settori produttivi, anche in funzione dell’impatto dell’elevata inflazione
e dell’aumento dei tassi di interesse. Le società non finanziarie e le banche, che nel 2021 hanno
mostrato condizioni reddituali e patrimoniali in netto miglioramento, potrebbero vedere
accentuate, nel medio termine, le proprie vulnerabilità, a fronte dei riflessi negativi del mutato
contesto di riferimento sul costo del debito e sulla qualità del credito. Con specifico riferimento
all’Italia, ulteriori criticità potrebbero emergere in relazione alle esposizioni delle banche verso i
paesi coinvolti nel conflitto russo-ucraino, al calo del commercio estero e alla difficoltà di ridurre
la dipendenza energetica dalla Russia in tempi brevi. Il ridimensionamento delle aspettative di
ripresa economica e l’incertezza connessa agli sviluppi geopolitici in corso potranno innescare
ulteriori tensioni nei mercati azionari e obbligazionari nei prossimi mesi dell’anno.

4

In the first half of 2022, the global economic outlook has been revised
 downwards in the wake of multiple factors: Russia's invasion of Ukraine;
 the resurgence of the COVID-19 pandemic; and rising inflation. In the
 Eurozone, the gradual normalisation of monetary policy, already under way
 in other advanced economies, is ongoing as a result of the significant rise in
 inflation, which was fuelled by the rise in energy prices and by some supply rigidities in
the latter part of 2021, and finally amplified by the war in Ukraine in 2022. Interest rates, kept at
extremely low levels in recent years, are therefore expected to rise rapidly. In order to support
growth and accelerate the green and digital transition, the implementation of programmes
launched by the European Commission with the NGEU continues. These measures are coupled
with initiatives aimed at mitigating the recessionary scenarios that are foreseen especially for
countries characterised by high dependence on fossil energy sources and pre-existing
vulnerabilities, e.g. related to high levels of public and private debt.
The financial markets of the economies most exposed to the deterioration of the macroeconomic
scenario have experienced significant turbulences. Since the beginning of the year, the S&P500
and EuroStoxx50 stock indices have both lost around 20%, while showing a significant increase
in volatility. As regards the Italian market, in the first half of 2022, the Ftse Mib fell by 22%, more
than the drop observed in the other major Eurozone economies; the fall in stock prices was
uneven across sectors, being more marked in the technology (-30%), banking (-21%).
Secondary markets for government bonds in the euro area also experienced growing tensions,
with yields rising by more than 2% in Italy compared to the beginning of the year, and with a
sharp increase in volatility, which at the end of June 2022 reached its highest level since 2014. A
similar trend can be observed in the secondary market for corporate debt instruments, where
yields on bonds issued by both banks and non-financial companies have experienced steady
growth since the beginning of the year.
The expected worsening of the global economic outlook will be uneven across regions and
sectors, also depending on the impact of high inflation and rising interest rates. Non-financial
corporations and banks, which in 2021 markedly improved their profitability and capital
adequacy, could experience increased vulnerabilities in the medium term, in the wake of the
negative impact of this new economic environment on the cost of debt and credit quality. With
specific reference to Italy, further issues could emerge in relation to banks' exposures to countries
involved in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the drop in foreign trade, and the difficulty of reducing
energy dependence on Russia in the short term. A further worsening in the expectations about
economic growth and the uncertainty surrounding geopolitical developments may trigger further
tensions in equity and bond markets in the coming months of the year.

 5

HIGHL
 -20%

 -22%

 energy -2%
 technology -30%
 travel&leisure +2%
 banking -21%
 manufacturing -18%
 index
 performance
 -19%

 2022 real GDP estimates +2.7% +2.6%
 average revisions estimates -1.5% -1.6%

 inflation rate in June 2022 +8.6% +8.5%
 of which linked to food and energy prices 6.4% 6.6%

 public debt to GDP 95% 148%
 private debt to GDP 172% 116%

 GOVT 3.3%
 BANKS 3.9%
 NFCs 3.8%

 issuance Jun-22 7%
 maturing Dec-23 22% gross issuance
 bank -28%
 NFCs +32%

6

IGHTS
 listed companies
 large 129% -23%
 SMEs 102% -18%

 listed companies
 large +44%
 listed companies
 SMEs +14%
 large 11%
 SMEs 3%
 listed companies
 large 3%
 SMEs 1%

 39% 43% gas import from Russia
 58% 59% gas in storage

total disbursement targets
 to Italy achieved
 46 € bnl 110
 out of 191.5 out of 1,172

 23 €bln
 0.8% total assets
 26% large European
 bank exposures
 domestic govt bonds
 10% total assets
 RoRWA 1%
 NPL ratio 3%
 CET1 ratio 15%

 7

SOMMARIO

Focus

Energy dependence and trade with Russia 15
European support measures and national plans 17
Non-financial listed SMEs 65

1. Quadro macroeconomico
 Macroeconomic landscape 10

 2. Mercati azionari
 Equity markets 34

3. Mercati obbligazionari
 Bond markets 48

 4. Società non finanziarie
 Non-financial corporations 60

5. Banche
 Banks 76

Quadro macroeconomico

Macroeconomic landscape

Attività economica

Indicatori di incertezza e di fiducia

Occupazione e inflazione

Politica monetaria e fiscale

Economic activity

Indicators of uncertainty and economic sentiment

Unemployment and inflation

Monetary and fiscal policy

CONSOB Congiuntura e rischi del sistema finanziario italiano in una prospettiva comparata - 2022

 Nei primi mesi del 2022 le prospettive  In the first months of 2022, the
di crescita delle maggiori economie economic outlook of major advanced
avanzate sono state riviste al ribasso per countries deteriorated due to the
effetto dell’impatto atteso del conflitto in expected impact of the conflict in Ukraine
Ucraina sia sulla dinamica dell’inflazione on both inflation and foreign trade (in
sia sul commercio estero (alla luce delle light of sanctions imposed on Russia). The
sanzioni imposte alla Russia). I paesi con countries with the largest energy
una maggiore dipendenza energetica dependence on Russia experienced the
dalla Russia hanno registrato le correzioni largest downward corrections (Fig. 1.1 –
più ampie (Fig. 1.1 – Fig. 1.2). Fig. 1.2).

 Gli sviluppi geopolitici ed economici  Ongoing geopolitical and economic
in atto alimentano un’incertezza developments are fuelling uncertainty,
crescente, soprattutto in Europa, e un particularly in Europe, and a marked
deciso calo degli indici di fiducia, decline in confidence indices, reversing
interrompendo le tendenze positive the positive trends recorded the previous
registrate l’anno precedente. Continua a year. The evolution of the COVID-19
pesare inoltre l’evoluzione della pandemia pandemic is still weighing heavily, with
di COVID-19, che nel mese di giugno ha the significant rise in infections
visto una crescita significativa dei contagi experienced in June in the context of a
a fronte di una contestuale rimozione concomitant removal of the restrictive
delle misure restrittive adottate negli measures adopted in recent years in all
ultimi anni in tutti i maggiori paesi major Eurozone countries (Fig. 1.3 –
dell’area euro (Fig. 1.3 – Fig. 1.7). Fig. 1.7).

 L’inflazione, che già nel 2021 risul-  Inflation, already on the rise in 2021
tava in aumento per effetto della ripresa due to the recovery of global demand for
della domanda globale dei beni energetici energy goods and some supply rigidities,
e di alcune rigidità nell’offerta, ha rag- reached new highs in the euro area and
giunto i massimi nell’area euro e in Italia Italy in June 2022, when it rose to 8.6%
nel mese di giugno 2022, quando si è por- and 8.5%, respectively. The surge in the
tata rispettivamente all’8,6% e all’8,5%. Al prices of commodities is accountable for
rialzo dei prezzi dei beni energetici e dei an increase in the overall index of 6.4% in
beni alimentari è riferibile un incremento the euro area and 6.6% in Italy.
dell’indice generale pari al 6,4% nell’area Commodities that experienced the
euro e al 6,6% in Italia. Tra le materie greatest upturns during 2022, and
prime che hanno registrato i maggiori particularly after the outbreak of the
rialzi nel corso del 2022, e in particolare conflict in Ukraine, include natural gas,
dopo lo scoppio del conflitto in Ucraina, coal and nickel, while agricultural goods
sono compresi il gas naturale, il carbone e include wheat and maize (Fig. 1.8 –
il nickel, mentre tra i beni agricoli si anno- Fig. 1.10).
verano grano e mais (Fig. 1.8 – Fig. 1.10).

12

QUADRO MACROECONOMICO

 A fronte delle aspettative di ripresa  Given the expectations of economic
economica (poi riviste al ribasso come recovery (later revised downward as
ricordato prima) e della dinamica mentioned earlier) and inflationary
inflazionistica, la BCE ha annunciato la pressures, the ECB announced the gradual
riduzione graduale, a partire dai primi reduction, starting in early 2022, of net
mesi del 2022, degli acquisti netti di purchases of financial assets under the
attività finanziarie nell’ambito delle ope- unconventional operations launched in
razioni non convenzionali avviate negli previous years. Purchases under the PEPP
anni precedenti. Gli acquisti nell’ambito (pandemic emergency purchase program)
del PEPP (pandemic emergency purchase were discontinued in March, although
programme) sono stati interrotti a marzo, those under the APP (asset purchase
sebbene nei mesi successivi siano program initiated in 2015) were slightly
lievemente aumentati quelli nell’ambito increased in the following months, in
dell’APP (asset purchase programme order to meet the announced graduality.
avviato nel 2015), al fine di rispettare In June, the ECB also announced the
l’annunciata gradualità nella riduzione discontinuation of net purchases of
degli acquisti. A giugno la BCE ha securities under the APP as of July 2022.
annunciato anche l’interruzione degli However, the total amount of securities
acquisti netti di titoli nell’ambito dell’APP held by the ECB for monetary policy
a partire da luglio 2022. L’ammontare di purposes remains high and amounted to
titoli complessivamente detenuti dalla €4,957 billion at the end of June 2022 (of
BCE ai fini della politica monetaria resta which 448 billion represented by Italian
tuttavia elevato e pari a 4.957 miliardi di government bonds; Fig. 1.11).
euro a fine giugno 2022 (di cui 448
miliardi rappresentati da titoli pubblici
italiani; Fig. 1.11).

 Con riferimento all’andamento dei  With regard to the main public
principali parametri di finanza pubblica, finance indicators in the Eurozone, in
nel 2021 il rapporto tra debito pubblico e 2021 the ratio of public debt to GDP
PIL è lievemente diminuito nell’area euro, slightly decreased in the euro area to 95%,
portandosi al 95%, pur rimanendo ai while remaining at historical highs in Italy
massimi storici in Italia (148%), Francia e (148%), France and Spain. The very low
Spagna. Il livello molto basso dei tassi di level of interest rates over the last 10
interesse negli ultimi 10 anni ha years has, however, contributed to a
contribuito ad abbassare notevolmente le significant reduction in interest expenses
spese per interessi nelle maggiori in all countries considered (from 5% of
economie dell’Eurozona: in Italia, in GDP in 2007 to 3% in 2021 in Italy). The
particolare, sono calate dal 5% del PIL nel European Commission most recent
2007 al 3% nel 2021. Le più recenti forecasts point to an improvement in
previsioni della Commissione europea public accounts in 2022, with both debt

 13

CONSOB Congiuntura e rischi del sistema finanziario italiano in una prospettiva comparata - 2022

indicano un miglioramento dei parametri and deficit as a share of GDP falling in all
di finanza pubblica nel 2022, con un calo major countries (Fig. 1.12 - Fig. 1.13).
dell’incidenza sia del debito sia del deficit
rispetto al PIL in tutti i maggiori paesi
(Fig. 1.12 - Fig. 1.13).

 Nel 2021, il debito privato, riferito sia  In 2021, private debt, both household
alle famiglie sia alle imprese, ha registrato and corporate, declined slightly in the
una lieve diminuzione nelle principali major Eurozone economies, following the
economie dell’Eurozona, dopo l’incremen- increase experienced in 2020; Italy
to sperimentato nel 2020; l’Italia continua continues to be characterized by values
a caratterizzarsi per valori notevolmente significantly lower than those of other
inferiori rispetto a quelli degli altri paesi countries (Fig. 1.14).
(Fig. 1.14).

 2022 GDP (expected)

 2021 GDP

 Italy
 2.6
 6.6

 area euro
 2.7
 5.3

 world
 3.3
 5.9

14

QUADRO MACROECONOMICO

ENERGY DEPENDENCE AND TRADE WITH RUSSIA
 La Russia rappresenta il primo paese  Russia is the leading net exporter of
esportatore netto di gas naturale (con una natural gas (with a share of nearly 23% of
quota pari a quasi il 23% delle esporta- global exports), the second largest net
zioni globali), il secondo paese esportato- exporter of oil (13% of the global figure),
re netto di petrolio (13% del dato globale) and the third largest country with regard
e il terzo paese con riferimento al carbone to coal (with a 15% share). Oil, natural gas
(con una quota del 15%). Petrolio, gas and coal cover 85% of global energy
naturale e carbone coprono l’85% del needs, with slightly lower values in
fabbisogno energetico globale, con valori advanced economies, in many cases due
lievemente più bassi nelle economie to the wider reliance on nuclear energy
avanzate, in molti casi grazie al maggior (Fig. 1.15).
ricorso all’energia nucleare (Fig. 1.15).

 Lo scoppio del conflitto in Ucraina ha  The outbreak of the conflict in
avuto un impatto significativo sulle pro- Ukraine had a significant impact on the
spettive di crescita delle economie euro- growth prospects of European economies
pee anche a causa della elevata dipenden- also due to the high dependence on
za dalla Russia nell’approvvigionamento Russian energy resources.
di risorse energetiche. Over the past decade, the EU's imports of
Nell’ultimo decennio le importazioni di natural gas from Russia have grown up to
gas naturale dalla Russia da parte 39% of the total in 2020. The figure
dell’Unione europea sono cresciute, reaches 65% and 43% respectively for
raggiungendo nel 2020 il 39% del totale. Germany and Italy, which among the
Il dato si attesta al 65% e al 43% largest Eurozone countries record the
rispettivamente per Germania e Italia tra i highest dependence on Russian gas
maggiori paesi dell’area euro con la più (Fig. 1.16).
elevata dipendenza dal gas russo
(Fig. 1.16).

 Negli ultimi anni, inoltre, l’Unione  Moreover, in recent years, the EU has
europea ha progressivamente ridotto la progressively reduced its domestic natural
produzione interna di gas naturale (passa- gas production (from 24% of the total in
ta dal 24% del totale nel 2015 al 9% nel 2015 to 9% in 2021). In 2022, following
2021). Nel 2022, a seguito dell’invasione the invasion of Ukraine, efforts to reduce
dell’Ucraina, gli sforzi per ridurre la dipen- the EU's energy dependence on Russia
denza energetica della UE dalla Russia si intensified, also in the wake of the new
sono intensificati, anche sulla scia del REPowerEU plan published by the
nuovo piano REPowerEU pubblicato dalla European Commission (see next section

 15

CONSOB Congiuntura e rischi del sistema finanziario italiano in una prospettiva comparata - 2022

Commissione europea a maggio 2022 (si ‘European support measures and national
veda la sezione successiva ‘Misure di plans’), with volumes of natural gas
sostegno europee e piani nazionali’), con imported from Russia in the first half of
un calo di oltre il 37% dei volumi di gas the year falling by more than 37%
naturale importati dalla Russia nella prima compared to the previous year (Fig. 1.17 -
metà dell’anno rispetto a quelli del Fig. 1.18).
precedente anno (Fig. 1.17 - Fig. 1.18).

 Con riferimento specifico all’Italia, le  Specifically, in Italy, energy sources
fonti di energia utilizzate nei settori used in the manufacturing and service
manifatturiero e dei servizi provengono da sectors come from energy goods imported
beni energetici importati dalla Russia per from Russia for about 29%, while those
il 29% circa mentre quelle utilizzate nel used in the residential sector (e.g. for
settore residenziale (per riscaldamento, heating, cooling and cooking) refer to
raffrescamento e impiego in cucina) sono Russian sources for 28% of the total. In
riferibili a fonti russe per il 28%. Si addition, 24% of the energy goods related
aggiunge, inoltre, la quota di beni to the production of electricity are
energetici di origine russa relativa alla imported from Russia (Fig. 1.19).
produzione di elettricità, pari al 24% circa
del totale (Fig. 1.19).

 Con riferimento al commercio estero  With regard to the EU's external trade,
della UE, nell’ultimo anno sono cresciute imports from Russia grew last year and the
le importazioni dalla Russia e si è ampliato negative balance of net exports widened.
il saldo negativo delle esportazioni nette. However, this dynamic can be attributed
Tale dinamica è tuttavia riconducibile a to valuation effects related to the sharp
effetti di valutazione connessi al netto rise in the prices of energy goods. As
rialzo dei prezzi dei beni energetici. regards the composition of trade between
Quanto alla composizione del commercio the EU and Russia, manufacturing goods,
tra UE e Russia, tra i beni esportati dalla machinery, and transport equipment
UE predominano beni manifatturieri, predominate among the goods exported
macchinari e mezzi di trasporto mentre tra by the EU, while energy goods and raw
quelli maggiormente importati rientrano materials are among the most imported. A
beni energetici e materie prime. Analoga similar composition is observed in Italy,
composizione si osserva in Italia che vede where Russia is the 14th largest export
nella Russia il 14° mercato di esportazione market (accounting for 1.5% of total
(a cui è riferibile l’1,5% delle esportazioni exports) and the 7th largest import market
complessive) e il 7° mercato di (accounting for 4% of total imports;
importazione (a cui è riferibile il 4% del Fig. 1.20 – Fig. 1.21).
totale; Fig. 1.20 – Fig. 1.21).

16

QUADRO MACROECONOMICO

EUROPEAN SUPPORT MEASURES AND NATIONAL PLANS
 Il peggioramento delle prospettive  The deteriorating economic outlook
economiche e le perturbazioni del mer- and global energy market disruptions
cato energetico globale causate dall'inva- caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine
sione russa dell'Ucraina hanno ulterior- have further raised the attention of policy
mente innalzato l’attenzione dei policy makers on economic growth and
makers su crescita economica e transizione transition to a sustainable development
verso un modello di sviluppo sostenibile. model. A key policy tool in the European
Uno strumento di policy fondamentale in arena is the Next Generation EU (NGEU)
ambito europeo è il programma Next program and, in particular, the Recovery
Generation EU (NGEU) e, in particolare, il and Resilience Facility (RRF), aimed at
Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF), making EU countries more resilient. The
teso a rendere i paesi dell’Unione europea RRF is, in fact, at the heart of the
più resilienti. Il RRF è, infatti, al centro implementation of the plan launched by
dell'attuazione del piano lanciato dalla the European Commission and called
Commissione europea e denominato REPowerEU, based on three cornerstones:
REPowerEU, basato su tre punti cardine: energy saving, diversification in energy
risparmio energetico, diversificazione sources, and acceleration of renewable
nell’approvvigionamento e accelerazione energy (Fig. 1.23).
delle energie rinnovabili (Fig. 1.23).

 diversifying away saving
 from fossil fuels energy

 300
 billions of euro
 225 loans
 75 grants

 massive investment in
 renewable energy

 La Commissione europea reperirà i  The European Commission will fund
fondi necessari a finanziarie NGEU sul NGEU through a diversified financing
mercato dei capitali tramite una strategia strategy on capital markets, including the
di finanziamento diversificata, che include issuance of €250 billion of green bonds (of
l’emissione di obbligazioni green per un which €23 billion has already been
ammontare pari a 250 miliardi di euro (di issued). Italy will be the largest beneficiary
cui 23 miliardi già emesse). L’Italia sarà il of these issues, followed by Spain and
maggior beneficiario di queste emissioni, France (Fig. 1.24).
seguita da Spagna e Francia (Fig. 1.24).

 17

CONSOB Congiuntura e rischi del sistema finanziario italiano in una prospettiva comparata - 2022

 Alla data del presente Rapporto tutti i  As of the date of this Report, all EU
paesi dell’UE hanno presentato il proprio countries have submitted their own
Piano nazionale di ripresa e resilienza National Recovery and Resilience Plans
(PNRR), che la Commissione europea ha (RRPs), which the European Commission
già approvato in 25 casi. Gli Stati membri has already approved in 25 cases. Overall,
hanno destinato, nel complesso, più del Member States have allocated more than
40% della spesa prevista nei propri Piani 40% of the planned spending to green
alla transizione sostenibile e il 26% alla transition and about 26% to digital
transizione digitale (prevedendo quindi transition (thus providing for higher
quote superiori a quelle indicate dalla shares than those indicated by the
Commissione europea e pari, rispettiva- European Commission and amounting to,
mente, a 37% e 20%; Fig. 1.25 - Fig. 1.26). respectively, 37% for and 20%; Fig. 1.25 -
 Fig. 1.26).

 L’attuazione del PNRR rappresenta  The implementation of the RRP is
per l’Italia un percorso obbligato per pro- essential for Italy to promote growth and
muovere la crescita e sostenere il maggior sustain the increased public debt
debito pubblico accumulato negli anni accumulated over the past years and
passati e durante la pandemia. Il 13 agosto during the pandemic. On 13 August 2021,
2021 la Commissione europea, a seguito the European Commission, following the
della valutazione positiva del PNRR positive assessment of the Italian RRP,
italiano, ha erogato all'Italia 24,9 miliardi disbursed €24.9 billion in pre-financing
di euro di fondi a titolo di prefinan- funds to Italy (including 8.957 billion in
ziamento (di cui 8,957 miliardi a fondo grants and 15.937 billion in loans),
perduto e 15,937 miliardi in prestiti), pari representing 13% of the total amount
al 13% dell'importo totale stanziato a allocated to the country. On 13 April 2022,
favore del Paese. Il 13 aprile 2022, la the European Commission paid Italy the
Commissione europea ha versato all'Italia first instalment amounting to €21 billion
la prima rata da 21 miliardi di euro (10 (10 billion in grants and 11 billion in
miliardi di sovvenzioni e 11 miliardi di loans), following the achievement of 51
prestiti) a seguito del raggiungimento di targets under the Italian Plan by 31
51 obiettivi previsti dal Piano italiano December 2021, measured through
entro il 31 dicembre 2021, misurati attra- specific goals both qualitative (so-called
verso specifici traguardi sia qualitativi (i milestones, e.g., legislation adopted or
cosiddetti milestones, ad esempio la legi- information systems fully operational) and
slazione adottata o la piena operatività dei quantitative (so-called targets, e.g., km of
sistemi informativi) sia quantitativi (i railways built, number of students
cosiddetti targets, ad esempio chilometri completing education).
di ferrovie costruite, numero di studenti
che hanno completato la formazione).

18

QUADRO MACROECONOMICO

Secondo le rilevazioni della Commissione According to the European Commission, as
europea alla data del 15 dicembre 2021 in of 15 December 2021, on average, about
media circa il 10% di tutti gli obiettivi 10% of all targets under the Italian Plan
previsti dal Piano italiano sono stati have been achieved (Fig. 1.27).
raggiunti (Fig. 1.27).

 Il pagamento della prima rata del  The payment of the first instalment of
PNRR italiano (il cui importo è maggiore the Italian RRP (which is larger than that
di quello ricevuto finora da principali Stati received so far by major Member States) is
membri) rappresenta un ulteriore a further step in the implementation of the
passaggio nel percorso di attuazione degli investments and reforms envisaged by the
investimenti e delle riforme previsti dal Italian Plan (Fig. 1.28).
Piano italiano (Fig. 1.28).

 Rimangono rilevanti i passaggi da  The steps to be taken and the
compiere e le scadenze che l’Italia deve deadlines that Italy must meet in the
rispettare nei prossimi mesi. Entro il 30 coming months remain relevant. By 30
giugno 2022, per ottenere il versamento June 2022, in order to qualify for the
della seconda rata di esborsi (formalmente second instalment of disbursements,
richiesta il 29 giugno) il nostro Paese (formally requested on 29 June), our
dovrà dimostrare di aver raggiunto 45 country will have to deliver 45 targets
obiettivi relativi a tutte le missioni del (related to all the missions of the Italian
Piano italiano (ad eccezione della Plan (with the exception of mission 3 on
missione 3 sulla mobilità sostenibile) e, in sustainable mobility) and, in particular,
particolare, le macroaree concernenti the macro-areas concerning digitalisation
digitalizzazione (14 obiettivi), rivoluzione (14 targets), green revolution and
verde e transizione ecologica (14 obiettivi) ecological transition (14 targets) that will
che richiederanno maggiori sforzi. Inoltre, require greater efforts. In addition, 100
per il conseguimento dei restanti obiettivi European deadlines will have to be
del Piano italiano entro la fine del 2022 achieved by the end of 2022, rising to 476
dovranno essere rispettate 100 scadenze by 2026 (more than 80% of which have yet
europee, che salgono a 476 entro il 2026 to be initiated) and including complex
(di cui più dell’80% ancora da avviare) e reforms such as those on public
che includono riforme complesse come procurement, the judiciary system, and
quelle su appalti pubblici, sistema public administration (Fig. 1.29).
giudiziario e pubblica amministrazione
(Fig. 1.29).

 19

CONSOB Trends and risks of the Italian financial system in a comparative perspective - 2022

List of figures

1.1 Revisions in real GDP growth forecasts for 2022 in the main advanced countries 22
1.2 Unemployment and activity rate in the euro area 22
1.3 Economic policy uncertainty indicators in the US and in Europe 22
1.4 PMI indexes in the main euro area countries 23
1.5 Sentiment indicators in the euro area 23
1.6 COVID-19 confirmed cases in the main euro area countries 23
1.7 COVID-19 Government Response Stringency Index in the main euro area countries 24
1.8 Inflation rate in the euro area 24
1.9 Drivers of inflation in Italy and in the main euro area countries 24
1.10 Trends in commodities prices 25
1.11 Net purchases of securities by the ECB 25
1.12 Trends in public debt and interest expenses in the main euro area countries 25
1.13 Public debt and deficit to GDP ratio in the main euro area countries 26
1.14 Private debt to GDP ratio in the main euro area countries 26

1.15 Energy consumption by source in selected countries in 2020 27
1.16 Natural gas imports from Russia 27
1.17 EU sources of natural gas and volumes imported from Russia in 2021 and 2022 27
1.18 Natural gas storage in Europe 28
1.19 Italian electricity production by source and reliance on Russian imports
 by sectorial end-uses 28
1.20 Trade of EU with Russia over time 28
1.21 Composition of imports and exports of EU and Italy with Russia 29
1.22 Italian main countries of imports and exports 29

20

MACROECONOMIC LANDSCAPE

1.22 REPowerEU: actions and additional investments 30
1.23 NextGenerationEU green bonds eligible amount 30
1.24 Recovery and resiliency plans (RRPs) endorsed by the European commission 30
1.25 Twin transitions: climate neutrality and digital transitions 31
1.26 RRF Commission’s disbursements (1st payment) per Member State 31
1.27 Italy Policy Pillars: milestones and targets achieved 31
1.28 Italian PNRR deadlines 32

 21

CONSOB Trends and risks of the Italian financial system in a comparative perspective - 2022

Fig. 1.1 – Revisions in real GDP growth forecasts for 2022 in the main advanced countries
 before war after war

 2022 real GDP growth forecasts

 World 3.3% 4.5%
 US 3.0% 4.2%
 China 4.5% 5.1%
 UK 3.6% 4.7%
 Euro area 2.7% 4.2%
 Italy 2.6% 4.2%
 Germany 1.8% 4.2%
 France 2.6% 3.8%
 Spain 4.3% 5.6%

Source: calculations on OECD, IMF and European Commission data. Figure refers to average values of GDP forecasts published in OECD
Economic Outlook June 2022, IMF World Economic Outlook April 2022 and European Commission Spring Forecasts May 2022 and
Summer Forecasts July 2022 for euro area countries only.

Fig. 1.2 – Unemployment and activity rate in the euro area

 euro area Italy

 unemployment rate (monthly data up to May 2022) activity rate (quarterly data up to Q1 2022)
14% 76%

12% 72%

10% 68%

 8% 64%

 6% 60%
 2007
 2008
 2009
 2010
 2011
 2012
 2013
 2014
 2015
 2016
 2017
 2018
 2019
 2020
 2021
 2022
 2009
 2010
 2011
 2012
 2013
 2014
 2015
 2016
 2017
 2018
 2019
 2020
 2021
 2022

Source: European Commission DG - ECFIN, Eurostat, Istat. Figure on the left reports the unemployment rate as a percentage of active
population; time series are seasonally adjusted. Figure on the right reports the activity rate computed as the ratio between the workforce
(employed and unemployed) and population aged 15 years or more.

Fig. 1.3 – Economic policy uncertainty indicators in the US and in Europe
(monthly data up to May 2022)
 US euro area Italy
600 300

500 250

400 200

300 150

200 100

100 50

 0 0
 2007
 2008
 2009
 2010
 2011
 2012
 2013
 2014
 2015
 2016
 2017
 2018
 2019
 2020
 2021
 2022
 2007
 2008
 2009
 2010
 2011
 2012
 2013
 2014
 2015
 2016
 2017
 2018
 2019
 2020
 2021
 2022

Source: Economic Policy Uncertainty Index. The indicators are computed by counting the number of newspaper articles containing the
terms uncertain or uncertainty, economic or economy, and one or more policy-relevant terms. For the US the newspapers considered
are USA Today, the Miami Herald, the Chicago Tribune, the Washington Post, the Los Angeles Times, the Boston Globe, the San Francisco
Chronicle, the Dallas Morning News, the Houston Chronicle, and the WSJ. For the European index the newspapers considered are Le
Monde and Le Figaro for France, Handelsblatt and Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung for Germany, Corriere Della Sera and La Stampa for
Italy, El Mundo and El Pais for Spain, and The Times of London and Financial Times for the United Kingdom.

22

MACROECONOMIC LANDSCAPE

Fig. 1.4 – PMI indexes in the main euro area countries
(monthly data up to June 2022)

 Spain France Germany Italy
 services manufacturing
 70 70
 60 60
 50 50
 40 40
 30 30
 20 20
 10 10
 0 0
 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Source: Refinitiv Datastream.

Fig. 1.5 – Sentiment indicators in the euro area
(monthly data up to June 2022)

 current general consumer confidence own family economic conditions
 (current and future)
 future
 current economic conditions future economic conditions
 (own family and Italy) (own family and Italy)
 Italian economic conditions
 (current and future)
 retail investor market sentiment in the euro area confidence indicator in Italy
 80 170

 40 140

 0 110

 -40 80

 -80 50
 2007
 2008
 2009
 2010
 2011
 2012
 2013
 2014
 2015
 2016
 2017
 2018
 2019
 2020
 2021
 2022

 2007
 2008
 2009
 2010
 2011
 2012
 2013
 2014
 2015
 2016
 2017
 2018
 2019
 2020
 2021
 2022

Source: Refinitiv Datastream and Istat. In the left figure retail investor Sentix Sentiment Indicator is reported.

Fig. 1.6 – COVID-19 confirmed cases in the main euro area countries
(daily data up to 30 June 2022; cases per millions)

 France Germany Spain Italy
 6,000

 5,000

 4,000

 3,000

 2,000

 1,000

 0
 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
 2020 | 2021 | 2022

Source: Our World in Data within the Oxford Martin Programme on Global Development at the University of Oxford and in partnership
with the Global Change Data Lab; https://ourworldindata.org/covid-cases.

 23

CONSOB Trends and risks of the Italian financial system in a comparative perspective - 2022

Fig. 1.7 – COVID-19 Government Response Stringency Index in the main euro area countries
(daily data up to 30 June 2022)

 France Germany Spain Italy
100

 80

 60

 40

 20

 0
 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
 2020 | 2021 | 2022

Source: Our World in Data within the Oxford Martin Programme on Global Development at the University of Oxford and in partnership
with the Global Change Data Lab. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-stringency-index.

Fig. 1.8 – Inflation rate in the euro area
(growth rate in percentage values; quarterly data)

 euro area Italy
 total inflation core inflation
 8% 5%

 6% 4%

 4% 3%

 2% 2%

 0% 1%

-2% 0%
 2007
 2008
 2009
 2010
 2011
 2012
 2013
 2014
 2015
 2016
 2017
 2018
 2019
 2020
 2021
 2022
 2023
 2007
 2008
 2009
 2010
 2011
 2012
 2013
 2014
 2015
 2016
 2017
 2018
 2019
 2020
 2021
 2022
 2023

Source: Oxford Economics. Dot lines represent forecasts. Core inflation does not include food and energy.

Fig. 1.9 – Drivers of inflation in Italy and in the main euro area countries

 food energy other

 Italy June 2022

 1.9% 2.2% 2.0% 2.0%

 2.0%
 0.6% 4.0%
 4.8% 4.6% 4.5%
 3.8% 3.5%

 1.9% 2.5%
 1.8% 1.7%
 0.2% 1.0% 0.7% 1.1%

 -0.4%

 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jun-22 euro area Germany France Spain
Source: calculations on Eurostat data. Food includes alcohol and tobacco. Figures for Spain refer to data as of May 2022.

24

MACROECONOMIC LANDSCAPE

Fig. 1.10 – Trends in commodities prices
(daily data up to 30 June 2022; 1st January 2019=100)

 natural gas crude oil coal wheat maize nickel
1,200 500

1,000 400
 800
 300
 600
 200
 400

 200 100

 0 0
 2019 2020 2021 2022 2019 2020 2021 2022

Source: Refinitiv Datastream.

Fig. 1.11 – Net purchases of securities by the ECB
(monthly data up to May 2022; amounts in billions of euro)
 PSPP CBPP3 CSPP ABSPP PEPP Italy Germany France Spain others supranationals
 net purchases by programme public sector securities net purchases by country
160 160
140 140
120 120
100 100
 80 80
 60 60
 40 40
 20 20
 0 0
-20 -20
 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Source: ECB. Monthly net purchases of public sector securities through PEPP programme have been estimated based on bimonthly data.

Fig. 1.12 – Trends in public debt and interest expenses in the main euro area countries
 Spain France Germany Italy 2007 2020 2021

 debt-GDP ratio (annual data; 1970-2021) interest expenses as % of GDP
180%
 5%
150%

120% 3% 3%
 3% 3%
 90% 2%
 2%
 60% 2%
 1%
 1%
 30% 1%
 0.5%
 0%
 1971
 1973
 1975
 1977
 1979
 1981
 1983
 1985
 1987
 1989
 1991
 1993
 1995
 1997
 1999
 2001
 2003
 2005
 2007
 2009
 2011
 2013
 2015
 2017
 2019
 2021

 Italy Germany France Spain

Source: IMF Fiscal Monitor April 2022, IMF Historical Public Debt Database and OECD Sovereign borrowing outlook May 2022.

 25

CONSOB Trends and risks of the Italian financial system in a comparative perspective - 2022

Fig. 1.13 – Public debt and deficit to GDP ratio in the main euro area countries

 2022 2021

 public debt / GDP average euro area 2022, 95% public deficit / GDP average euro area 2022, 4%
 151%

 113% 118%
 7% 7%
 7%
 69%
 148% 4%
 111% 115%
 66% 6% 5% 5%

 Italy Germany France Spain Italy Germany
 3% France Spain
Source: European Commission Economic Forecasts Spring 2022, May 2022.

Fig. 1.14 – Private debt to GDP ratio in the main euro area countries
 2019 2020 2021

 non-financial corporations households
 173% 69% 67%
 167%
 153% 62% 62%
 58% 57% 57% 58%
 54%
 45% 44%
 107% 41%
 93% 103%
 77% 74% 73%
 68% 73%
 59%

 Italy Germany France Spain Italy Germany France Spain

Source: Bank for the International Settlements.

26

MACROECONOMIC LANDSCAPE

ENERGY DEPENDENCE AND TRADE WITH RUSSIA
Fig. 1.15 – Energy consumption by source in selected countries in 2020
(share on total consumption)

 coal oil natural gas nuclear hydropower wind solar other renewables

 global 28% 32% 25% 4% 7% Italy 4% 38% 43% 7% 4%

 US 11% 38% 35% 9% 4% Germany 16% 36% 27% 5% 10%

 UK 36% 39% 7% 10% France 31% 17% 37% 6%

 EU 11% 37% 25% 11% 6% 6% Spain 45% 24% 11% 5% 10%

Source: Statistical Review of World Energy trough OurWorldinData; https://ourworldindata.org/energy. Primary energy is calculated
based on the 'substitution method' which takes account of the inefficiencies in fossil fuel production by converting non-fossil energy
into the energy inputs required if they had the same conversion losses as fossil fuels.

Fig. 1.16 – Natural gas imports from Russia
(annual data; values in million cubic meters)

 EU Germany France Italy Spain average 2011-2019 2020
 trend over time share of total natural gas imports
200,000
 65%
160,000
 45%
120,000 41% 43%
 39%
 36%

 80,000
 17% 17%
 40,000 10%
 1%
 0
 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 EU Italy Germany France Spain

Source: calculations on Eurostat data.

Fig. 1.17 – EU sources of natural gas and volumes imported from Russia in 2021 and 2022
 domestic production Russia LNG 2021
 Norway Algeria Libya
 Azerbaijan 2022

 composition by sources natural gas imports from Russia (billions of cubic meters)

 6% 9% 8% 8% 5% 6%
 9%
 15.8 15.7
 19% 22%
 24% 21% 21% 21%
 22%
 12.4 12.5 12.8 12.4
 11.9
 8% 8% 11% 11% 19% 20%
 18% 9.5 9.1
 8.3
 36% 39% 7.0
 40% 41% 40% 38%
 38% 4.5

 24% 21% 19% 17% 15% 13% 9%
 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Source: calculations on Bruegel data.

 27

CONSOB Trends and risks of the Italian financial system in a comparative perspective - 2022

Fig. 1.18 – Natural gas storage in the EU
(share on total capacity)

 EU 2021 EU 2022 Italy 2021 Italy 2022

 trend over time level as of 30 June 2022
100
 72.2
 80 58.9 61.2 62.4
 58.2

 60

 40

 20

 0
 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec EU average Italy Germany France Spain

Source: AGSI Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory; https://agsi.gie.eu/#/.

Fig. 1.19 – Italian electricity production by source and reliance on Russian imports by sectorial end-uses
(annual data; values in TWh)

 coal gas oil hydropower solar wind other renewables Russian coal Russian natural gas Russian oil other sources

 sources of electricity production energy sources by end-uses
 350
 manufacturing
 300
 250 transport

 200 residential
 150 agricolture
 100
 services and others
 50
 electricity generation
 0
 1990
 1992
 1994
 1996
 1998
 2000
 2002
 2004
 2006
 2008
 2010
 2012
 2014
 2016
 2018
 2020

 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy & Ember through OurWorld in Data and IEA statistics.

Fig. 1.20 – Trade of EU with Russia over time

 net exports imports exports
 30

 20

 10

 0

-10

-20

-30
 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Source: Eurostat.

28

MACROECONOMIC LANDSCAPE

Fig. 1.21 – Composition of imports and exports of EU and Italy with Russia
(amounts in billions of euro)

 food raw materials & oil manufactured goods chemicals commodities & others machinery & transport equipment

 European Union Italy
100 15

 75
 10

 50

 5
 25

 0 0
 imports exports imports exports imports exports imports exports
 Jan-Apr 2021 Jan-Apr 2022 Jan-Apr 2021 Jan-Apr 2022

Source: calculations on Eurostat and ISTAT data.

Fig. 1.22 – Italian main countries of imports and exports
(data as of April 2022)
 imports exports

 Germany 16.0% Germany 13.0%
 France 8.3% France 10.2%
 China 8.2% USA 9.6%
 Netherlands 5.9% Switzerland 5.3%
 Spain 5.1% Spain 4.9%
 Belgium 4.5% UK 4.5%
 Russia 3.7% Belgium 3.5%
 USA 3.3% Poland 3.1%
 Poland 2.5% China 3.0%
 Switzerland 2.4% Netherlands 2.9%
 Austria 2.3% Austria 2.2%
 Turkey 2.1% Turkey 1.8%
 UK 1.7% Romania 1.6%
 Czech Republic 1.6% Russia 1.5%
 Romania 1.5% Japan 1.5%

Source: ISTAT.

 29

CONSOB Trends and risks of the Italian financial system in a comparative perspective - 2022

EUROPEAN SUPPORT MEASURES AND NATIONAL PLANS
Fig. 1.23 – REPowerEU: actions and additional investments
(billions of euro)

 renewables and hydrogen infrastructure 113

 energy efficiency and heat pump 56

 less fossil fuels used by industry 41

 biomethane production 37

 greater electricity use 29

 sufficient liquefied natural gas 10

 security of oil supply 2

 other 12

Source: https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/api/files/attachment/872551/FS%20Financing%20REPowerEU.pdf.

Fig. 1.24 – NextGenerationEU green bonds eligible amount
(billions of euro)

 69.9

 26.4
 13.9 12.2
 10.3
 6.1 5.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.0 1.8 1.0 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0

Source: https://ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/eu-budget/eu-borrower-investor-relations/nextgenerationeu-green-bonds/dashboard_en.
Expenditure in Member States’ Recovery and Resilience Plans that is eligible for being included in the pool of NextGenerationEU green
bonds financing

Fig. 1.25 – Recovery and resiliency plans (RRPs) endorsed by the European commission
(distribution of total planned spending by green, digital and resilience components)

 green digital resilience
 6% 7%
 16% 16% 23%
 26% 23% 20% 15%
 38% 33% 32% 39% 30% 36% 37% 36% 36% 36% 35% 36% 38%
 42% 32% 40% 40%
 52% 25% 26%
 39% 27% 27% 26%
 21% 28% 32% 21% 21% 23% 20% 32% 22% 21% 21% 22% 21%
 25% 23% 21% 22%

 59% 61% 54% 59%
 37%
 46% 42% 40% 38% 45% 50% 37% 38% 38% 43% 42% 41% 40% 42% 42% 43% 44% 42%
 50%
 41%

Source: https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/recovery-coronavirus/recovery-and-resilience-facility_en, retrieved 11 July
2022. Resilience (economic and social) includes, for example, investment in social and territorial cohesion, labour market policies,
healthcare sector, public administration, productivity and competitiveness, policies for the next generation, education and skills.

30

MACROECONOMIC LANDSCAPE

Fig. 1.26 – Twin transitions: climate neutrality and digital transitions

 target EU planned for 25 EU Member States

 37%
 green spending
 45%

 20%
 digital spending
 26%

Source: https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/recovery-coronavirus/recovery-and-resilience-facility_en, retrieved 11 July
2022.

Fig. 1.27 – RRF Commission’s disbursements (1st payment) per Member State
(billions of euro)
 number of targets/milestones achieved disbursement

 52 51

 38 38

 21
 15
 10
 7.4
 3.6 1.2

 Spain Italy France Greece Portugal

Source: https://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/recovery-and-resilience-scoreboard, retrieved 30/06/2022. Under the RRF, two types of
disbursements can take place. The pre-financings are granted upon request of the Member States. They are paid just after the recovery
and resilience plans have been endorsed, are limited to plans endorsed in 2021, and should not exceed 13% of the overall allocation
to the Member State. All further disbursements (payment) are made upon request of the Member State and conditional on a positive
assessment by the Commission as to the satisfactory fulfilment of a set of relevant milestones and targets.

Fig. 1.28 – Italy Policy Pillars: milestones and targets achieved

 number of milestones/targets to achieve number of milestones/targets achieved

 digital transformation 157 16

 green transition 195 22

 smart, sustainable and inclusive growth 206 25

 social and territorial cohesion 239 18

 health, economic, social and institutional resilience 225 25

 policies for the next generation 40 4

Source: calculations on EU Recovery and Resilience scoreboard data, https://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/recovery-and-resilience-
scoreboard, 15/12/2021. This graph displays the share of satisfactorily fulfilled milestones and targets. A milestone or target is fulfilled
once a Member State has provided the evidence to the Commission by submitting a payment request (maximum twice a year) that it
has completed the milestone or target in a satisfactory manner and the Commission has assessed it positively in an implementing
decision. The number of Italian milestones/targets is 527. In the representation of the data, due to overlaps between the different policy
pillars, the total number of milestones/targets is greater than 527.

 31

CONSOB Trends and risks of the Italian financial system in a comparative perspective - 2022

Fig. 1.29 – Italian PNRR deadlines

 deadlines before the end of 2022 deadlines before 2026
 392

 51

 38

 7 31 43
 4
 5 5

 by 30/3/22 by 30/6/22 by 30/9/22 by 31/12/22 to start in progress well advanced completed late

Source: https://openpnrr.it/, the data refers to European deadlines. retrieved 11 July 2022.

32

MACROECONOMIC LANDSCAPE

 33

Mercati azionari

Equity markets

Andamento dei corsi azionari

Volatilità e liquidità

Multipli di borsa

Indicatori di interconnessione tra mercati

Equity markets trends

Volatility and liquidity

Multiples

Connectedness among stock markets

 35

CONSOB Congiuntura e rischi del sistema finanziario italiano in una prospettiva comparata - 2022

 Nel primo semestre 2022, i corsi azio-  In the first half of 2022, in the major
nari delle principali economie avanzate advanced economies stock prices declined
hanno registrato un calo in conseguenza as a result of the worsening
del peggioramento del quadro macro- macroeconomic environment also linked
economico legato anche all’invasione to the invasion of Ukraine. The
dell’Ucraina. L’EuroStoxx50 nell’area euro EuroStoxx50 in the euro area and the
e lo S&P500 negli USA hanno subito una S&P500 in the US suffered a loss of about
perdita di 20 punti percentuali circa, 20 percentage points, while the Ftse100 in
mentre il Ftse100 nel Regno Unito ha the UK experienced a smaller decline of
registrato una contrazione più ridotta e about 3 percentage points. Over the same
pari a 3 punti percentuali circa. Nelle time period, in emerging economies drops
economie emergenti le flessioni dei corsi in stock prices ranged from about 7% in
azionari oscillano, nel periodo in esame, the Shanghai SE index to 42% in the Moex
tra il 7% circa dell’indice Shanghai SE e il index. In all markets considered, volatility
42% dell’indice Moex. In tutti i mercati increased significantly, although in the
considerati la volatilità è aumentata in advanced countries it remained below the
misura significativa, anche se nei paesi peaks recorded in previous crisis episodes
avanzati si è mantenuta su livelli più (e.g., the default of Lehman and during the
contenuti rispetto a episodi di crisi pandemic outbreak; Fig. 2.1 – Fig. 2.2).
precedenti (ad esempio, rispetto ai picchi
registrati in occasione del fallimento
Lehman e dello scoppio della pandemia;
Fig. 2.1 – Fig. 2.2).

 Per quanto riguarda il mercato  As for Italian market, in the first half
italiano, nel primo semestre 2022 il Ftse of 2022 Ftse Mib experienced a decrease
Mib ha sperimentato un calo di 22 punti by 22 percentage points, greater than that
percentuali, superiore a quello rilevato per recorded by Dax30 (-20%), Cac40 (-17 %)
il Dax30 (-20%), il Cac40 (-17%) e l’Ibex35 and Ibex35 (-7%). Similar trends were
(-7%). Analoghi andamenti sono stati exhibited by small cap indices, which fell
registrati per gli indici small cap, che nello by 19 percentage points in Italy and 25
stesso periodo hanno subito una flessione percentage points in Germany. In the
di 19 punti percentuali in Italia e di 25 domestic stock market, price declines
punti percentuali in Germania. Nel were uneven across sectors, being most
mercato domestico la contrazione dei pronounced in the technology (-30%),
corsi è stata disomogenea tra settori, banking (-21%), and manufacturing (-18%)
risultando più intensa nei comparti sectors and significantly smaller in the
tecnologico (-30%), bancario (-21%), energy sector (-2%; Fig. 2.3 – Fig. 2.5).
manifatturiero (-18%) e significativamente
più contenuta in quello energetico (-2%;
Fig. 2.3 – Fig. 2.5).

36

MERCATI AZIONARI

STOCK INDEX PRICES
(daily data up to 30 June 2022; 1st January 2020=100)

Main advanced economies

 S&P500 Ftse100 EuroStoxx50
160

140

120

100

 80

 60
 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
 2020 | 2021 | 2022

Main emerging countries

 Moex Shanghai SE Ftse Brazil Nifty 500
200

150

100

 50
 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
 2020 | 2021 | 2022

Main euro area countries

 Cac40 Dax30 Ibex35 Ftse Mib
130

115

100

 85

 70

 55
 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
 2020 | 2021 | 2022

Source: Refinitiv Datastream.

 37

CONSOB Congiuntura e rischi del sistema finanziario italiano in una prospettiva comparata - 2022

 La flessione dei corsi azionari si è  The downturn in stock prices was
affiancata a un deterioramento della accompanied by a deterioration in the
liquidità delle maggiori società quotate, liquidity of the largest listed companies,
anche se in modo meno intenso rispetto a although less severe than in previous
precedenti periodi di crisi (Fig. 2.6). crisis periods (Fig. 2.6).

 Nonostante la congiuntura negativa  Despite the adverse trend in equity
dei mercati azionari, nell’area euro le markets, in the euro area expected
aspettative sull’andamento degli utili forward earnings over a 12-month horizon
societari su un orizzonte di 12 mesi continue to tilt upward from the lowest hit
continuano a mostrare un trend in crescita in 2020, especially for non-financial firms.
rispetto al minimo registrato nel 2020, Compared to 2021, signals of a narrowing
soprattutto per le imprese non finanziarie. gap between market valuations and
Emergono inoltre segnali di riduzione del fundamental values of listed companies
divario tra valutazioni di mercato e valori can also be detected, as shown by the
fondamentali delle società quotate riscon- sharply decrease both in the cyclically
trato nel corso del 2021, a fronte sia della adjusted price-earnings ratio and in
dinamica nettamente decrescente del misalignment indicators developed on the
price-earnings ratio aggiustato per il ciclo basis of the dividend discount model
economico sia di indicatori di disallinea- (Fig. 2.7 – Fig. 2.11).
mento elaborati sulla base del dividend
discount model (Fig. 2.7 – Fig. 2.11).

 Nel primo semestre del 2022,  The first half of 2022 recorded a
nell’area euro si è attenuato il rischio di decline in the risk of a simultaneous,
una reazione simultanea e sistemica dei systemic reaction to common exogenous
corsi azionari dei mercati domestici a shocks of equity prices in the euro area
shocks esogeni comuni, riflettendo domestic markets, likely reflecting
verosimilmente le differenze strutturali structural differences among the
tra le economie sottostanti anche in underlying economies also in terms of
termini di esposizione agli shock stessi1 exposure to the shocks themselves
(Fig. 2.12). (Fig. 2.12).

1 Il grado di interconnessione tra i mercati azionari europei è stato stimato distinguendo i paesi denominati core dai paesi cosiddetti
 periferici, dove il primo gruppo comprende le economie caratterizzate da condizioni di crescita e di finanza pubblica relativamente
 migliori rispetto a quelle del secondo gruppo. In condizioni normali, i paesi periferici sono esposti soprattutto a fattori idiosincratici
 e presentano, dunque, un livello di interconnessione più basso di quello stimabile per il gruppo core. In condizioni di crisi, tuttavia,
 la presenza di uno shock comune tende a ridurre il divario nel grado di interconnessione registrato per entrambi i gruppi di paesi.

38